000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021052 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1052 UTC Tue Nov 2 2021 Updated the Offshore Waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and within 750 nm of Ecuador section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Locally Heavy Rainfall expected across portions of Central America: A moist and unstable atmosphere already in place over most of Central America along with moist southwest winds south of the monsoon trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over some areas of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama, including the respective offshore waters. In addition, low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea just offshore northern coast of Panama is helping to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over and along the east coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. This low is expected to move westward over Central America on Tue, and significant tropical development is unlikely due to its interaction with land. However, this disturbance will still produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama through today, which could result in flooding and mudslides. By Wed, the system is forecast to move into the eastern Pacific. Please consult products from your local meteorological offices for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure 1009 mb near 10.5N81W to 09N88W to 10N100W to low pressure 1011 mb near 11N109W to low pressure 1011 mb near 08N116W to 06N124W to 09N133W. It resumes at 09N136W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of the trough between 95W-100W, within 120 nm south of the trough between 81W-85W and also between 99W-103W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the trough between 126W- 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO 1022 mb high pressure centered west of the area near 27N124W is supporting light northerly winds over the majority of the offshore waters north of 20N this evening. Seas offshore Baja California are generally 4-5 ft in fading NW swell, and 4-6 ft south of 20N with mixed northwest and southwest swell. Light to gentle variable winds are over the Gulf of California, where seas are 1-3 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 16N-19N between 112W-114W due to a trough. An overnight ASCAT pass showed fresh to strong north to northeast gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. These winds will continue through the period, except gale conditions are expected Fri night through Sat night as stronger high pressure builds southward toward southeastern Mexico. Northwest swell offshore Baja California will be replaced by new large northwest swell that will begin to propagate through the northern offshore waters Tue morning. Winds within 120 nm of the Baja California peninsula are increasing to moderate to fresh and continue through Fri night. Light to gentle winds will continue across the Gulf of California through the period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Updated Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, along 09N, and mainly light and variable winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-5 ft in southwest swell. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over the offshores waters from Panama to Costa Rico to the N of 06N. Gentle to moderate southwest winds will persist south of the monsoon trough through Tue, with light to gentle variable winds north of the monsoon trough expected through the period. The exception will be northeastwinds pulsing to fresh to strong in the Papagayo region tonight and Wed night. New southwest swell will begin to propagate through the regional waters on Tue and raise seas to 5-7 ft. South to southwest winds across the offshore waters of western Panama and Costa Rica will increase to fresh early Thu as low pressure develops south of the Papagayo region and drifts westward through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening stationary front over the NW part of the area extends from 30N134W to 26N140W. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are within 90 nm southeast of the front. A 1022 mb high pressure center is southeast of the front near 27N123W. The pressure gradient that is in place is maintaining generally light to gentle winds over the majority of the area, with a few small areas of moderate winds. Seas are in the range of 8-10 ft in northwest swell behind the front, and generally 6-8 ft southeast of the front. The front will dissipate today. The new northwest swell behind the front moving will begin to decay tonight into Wed, with seas subsiding to 8-9 ft north of 15N between 122W- 135W. Yet another cold front will approach the far northwest corner of the area Wed morning, and move across that same part of the area Wed and Wed night as it weakens. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 16N-19N between 112W- 114W due to a trough. A next pulse of large northwest swell, with seas of 8-10 ft will move into the area to north of 14N and to the west of a line from near 30N128W to 18N131W and to 10N140W by early on Thu, with the leading edge of the 8 ft seas expected to move out ahead of this next cold front. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 16N-19N between 112W-114W due to a trough. $$ Aguirre