000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020911 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Nov 02 2021 Corrected Special Features section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES...Corrected Locally Heavy Rainfall expected across portions of Central America: A moist and unstable atmosphere already in place over most of Central America along with moist southwest winds south of the monsoon trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over some areas of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama, including the respective offshore waters. In addition, low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea just offshore northern coast of Panama is helping to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over and along the east coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. This low is expected to move westward over Central America on Tue, and significant tropical development is unlikely due to its interaction with land. However, this disturbance will still produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama through Tue, which could result in flooding and mudslides. By Wed, the system is forecast to move into the eastern Pacific. Please consult products from your local meteorological offices for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure 1009 mb near 10.5N81W to 10N90W to 12N104W to low pressure 1011 mb near 12N108W to 11N114W to 06N121W to 07N130W. It resumes at 10N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of the trough between 98W-101W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 100W-105W, within 60 nm south of the trough between 109W-111W and within 60 nm of trough between 128W-130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO 1019 mb high pressure centered west of the area near 26N124W is supporting light northerly winds over the majority of the offshore waters north of 20N this evening. Seas offshore Baja California are generally 4-5 ft in fading NW swell, and 4-6 ft S of 20N with mixed northwest and southwest swell. Light to gentle variable winds are over the Gulf of California, where seas are 1-3 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted offshore of SW Mexico from 11N to 15.5N between 100W and 106W. Fresh to strong north to northeast gap winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region as high pressure from the Gulf of Mexico has built southward toward southeastern Mexico. These winds are forecast to reach near gale-force tonight and continue through early Wed, diminish to fresh to strong Wed afternoon through Thu evening, then increase back up to strong to possibly gale-force late Thu night into Fri night. Northwest swell offshore Baja California will be replaced by new large northwest swell that will begin to propagate through the northern offshore waters Tue morning. Winds within 120 nm of the Baja California peninsula are increasing to moderate to fresh and continue through Fri night. Light to gentle winds will continue across the Gulf of California through the period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, along 09N, and mainly light and variable winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-5 ft in southwest swell. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over the offshores waters from Panama to Costa Rico to the N of 06N. Gentle to moderate southwest winds will persist south of the monsoon trough through Tue, with light to gentle variable winds north of the monsoon trough expected through the period. The exception will be NE winds pulsing to fresh in the Papagayo region each night through Wed. New southwest swell will begin to propagate through the regional waters on Tue and raise seas to 5-7 ft. South to southwest winds across the offshore waters of western Panama and Costa Rica will increase to fresh early Thu as low pressure develops south of the Papagayo region and drifts westward through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A stationary front over the NW part of the area extends from 30N134W to 26N140W. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are within 90 nm southeast of the front. Weak high pressure is centered on both sides of the front, with a 1018 mb high NW of the front near 34N131W, and a 1024 mb high southeast of the front near 28N122W. The pressure gradient that is in place is maintaining generally light to gentle winds over the majority of the area, with a few small areas of moderate winds. Seas are in the range of 9-12 ft in NW swell behind the front, and generally 6-8 ft southeast of the front. The front will remain stationary tonight and dissipate by late Tue. The new northwest swell behind the front moving SE into the regional waters today will begin to decay Tue night into Wed, with seas subsiding to 8-9 ft north of 15N between 122W- 135W. Yet another cold front will approach the far northwest corner of the area Wed morning, and move across that same part of the area Wed and Wed night as it weakens. A next pulse of large northwest swell, with seas of 8-10 ft will move into the area to north of 14N and to the west of a line from near 30N128W to 18N131W and to 10N140W by early on Thu, with the leading edge of the 8 ft seas expected to move out ahead of this next cold front. $$ Aguirre