000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012129 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Nov 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1009 mb near 10.5N80.5W to 10N87W to low pres 1011 mb near 11N107.5W to low pres 1011 mb near 08.5N114.5W to 07.5N119W to 09.5N134W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is N of 06N E of 85W, and from 08.5N to 15N between 93W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 114W and 118W, and from 07.5N to 09.5N W of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO 1024 mb high pressure centered W of the area near 28N122W is supporting light northerly winds over the majority of the offshore waters N of 20N this afternoon. Seas offshore Baja California are generally 4-5 ft in fading NW swell, and 4-6 ft S of 20N with mixed NW and SW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are over the Gulf of California, where seas are 1-3 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted offshore of SW Mexico from 11N to 15.5N between 100W and 106W. Fresh to strong north to northeast gap winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region as high pressure from the Gulf of Mexico has built southward toward southeastern Mexico. These winds are forecast to reach near gale-force tonight and continue through early Wed, diminish to fresh to strong Wed afternoon through Thu evening, then increase back up to strong to possibly gale-force late Thu night into Fri night. Northwest swell offshore Baja California will be replaced by new large northwest swell that will begin to propagate through the northern offshore waters Tue morning. Winds within 120 nm of the Baja California peninsula will increase to moderate to fresh this evening and continue through Fri night. Light to gentle winds will continue across the Gulf of California through the period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, along 09N, and mainly light and variable winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-5 ft in southwest swell. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over the offshores waters from Panama to Costa Rico to the N of 06N. Gentle to moderate southwest winds will persist south of the monsoon trough through Tue, with light to gentle variable winds north of the monsoon trough expected through the period. The exception will be NE winds pulsing to fresh in the Papagayo region each night through Wed. New southwest swell will begin to propagate through the regional waters on Tue and raise seas to 5-7 ft. S to SW winds across the offshore waters of western Panama and Costa Rica will increase to fresh early Thu as low pressure develops S of the Papagayo region and drifts westward through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front moving across far NW portions of the area has become stationary from 30N133W to 26N140W Moderate S to SW winds are found within 90 nm southeast of the front. Weak high pressure is centered on both sides of the front, with a 1018 mb high NW of the front near 34N131W, and a 1024 mb high SE of the front near 28N122W. The pressure gradient that is in place is maintaining generally light to gentle winds over the majority of the area, with a few small areas of moderate winds. Seas are in the range of 9-12 ft in NW swell behind the front, and generally 6-8 ft southeast of the front. The front will remain stationary tonight and dissipate by late Tue. The new NW swell behind the front moving SE into the regional waters today will begin to decay Tue night into Wed, with seas subsiding to 8-9 ft north of 15N between 122W-135W. Yet another cold front will approach the far northwest corner of the area Wed morning, and move across that same part of the area Wed and Wed night as it weakens. A next pulse of large northwest swell, with seas of 8-10 ft will move into the area to north of 14N and to the west of a line from near 30N128W to 18N132W and to 14N140W by early on Thu, with the leading edge of the 8 ft seas expected to move out ahead of this next cold front. $$ Stripling