000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011613
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Nov 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1010 mb near 10.5N75W to
10N95W to low pres 1009 mb near 11.5N107.5W to low pres 1009 mb
near 09N113.5W to 07.5N119W to 10.5N136W to beyond 10N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of 06N E of 
85W, from 07N to 15.5N between 95W and 116W, and 08N to 10.5N W 
of 131W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

1024 mb high pressure centered W of the area near 25N126W is
supporting light to gentle N to NE winds over the majority of 
the offshore waters N of 18N this morning. Gentle to moderate 
northwest winds are within about 60 nm of Baja California from 
Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Eugenia. Seas offshore Baja California 
are generally 4-5 ft in fading NW swell, and 4-6 ft S of 18N with
mixed SW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are over the Gulf
of California, where seas are 2-3 ft. Scattered moderate to 
strong convection is noted offshore of SW Mexico from 13.5N to 
16N between 101W and 107W.

Strong north to northeast gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region as high pressure from the Gulf of Mexico has 
built southward toward southeastern Mexico. These winds are 
forecast to reach near gale-force tonight and continue through 
early Wed, diminish to fresh to strong Wed afternoon through Thu 
evening, then increase back up to strong to near gale-force late 
Thu night into Fri night. Northwest swell offshore Baja 
California will be replaced by new large northwest swell that 
will begin to propagate through the northern offshore waters on 
Tue. Moderate northwest winds west of northern Baja California 
will begin to increase to fresh this evening and continue through
Fri night. Light to gentle winds will continue across the Gulf 
of California through the period. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough, along 09N, and mainly light and variable winds 
north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-5 ft in southwest swell.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over the 
offshores waters from Panama to Costa Rico to the N of 06N. 

Gentle to moderate southwest winds will persist south of the 
monsoon trough, with light to gentle variable winds north of the 
monsoon trough through the period, except pulsing to fresh in the
Papagayo region each night through Wed. A new set of southwest 
swell will begin to propagate through the regional waters late 
Tue.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is moving across far NW portions of the area from
30N132W to 26N140W Fresh SW winds are found within 90 nm
southeast of the front. Weak high pressure is centered on both
sides of the front, with a 1016 mb high NW of the front near
32N138W, and a 10245 mb high SE of the front near 25N126W. 
The gradient that is in place is maintaining generally light to 
gentle winds over the majority of the area, the exception along
the front. Seas are in the range of 9-12 ft in NW swell behind
the front, and generally 5-7 ft southeast of the front. The 
front is forecast to become stationary from near 30N136W to 
27N140W tonight and dissipate by late Tue. New NW swell 
producing seas of 8-10 ft will reach from 30N128W to 20N140W by 
this evening, then decay Tue night into Wed, with seas subsiding 
to 8 ft north of 15N between 122W-135W. Yet another cold front 
will approach the far northwest corner of the area Tue evening, 
and move across that same part of the area Wed and Wed night as 
it weakens. An next pulse of large northwest swell, with seas of
8-10 ft will move into the area to north of 14N and to the west 
of a line from near 30N128W to 18N132W and to 14N140W by early on
Thu, with the leading edge of the 8 ft seas expected to move out
ahead of this next cold front.
 
$$
Stripling