000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011038 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1036 UTC Mon Nov 01 2021 Updated Offshore Waters within 250 nm of Mexico to include convection Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 10N76W to the coast of Costa Rica near 11N86W and continues to 10N97W to low pressure near 11N106W 1011 mb to low pressure near 09N113W 1011 mb to 08N123W to 09N130W and to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of trough between 106W-108W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm s of the trough between 110W-112W, within 60 nm south of the trough between 99W-101W and within 30 nm of the trough between 101W-105W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Updated Overnight ASCAT data shows light to gentle winds over the majority of these waters. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are within about 60 nm of Baja California from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Eugenia. Seas offshore Baja California are 3-5 ft in a northwest swell and 4-6 ft elsewhere due to a southwest swell. Light to gentle variable winds are over the Gulf of California, where seas are 2-3 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of 15N105W. Fresh to strong north to northeast gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region as high pressure from the Gulf of Mexico has build southward toward southeastern Mexico. These winds are forecast to reach near gale-force tonight and continue through early Wed, diminish to fresh to strong Wed afternoon through Thu evening, then increase back up to strong to near gale-force late Thu night into Fri night. Northwest swell offshore Baja California will be replaced by a new set of large northwest swell that will begin to propagate through the northern offshore waters on Tue. Moderate northwest winds west of northern Baja California will begin to increase to fresh this evening and continue through Fri night. Light to gentle winds will continue across the Gulf of California through the period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Overnight ASCAT data depicts gentle to moderate southwest to west winds south of the monsoon trough, and mainly light and variable winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft due to a southwest swell. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted over the offshores waters from Panama to northern Nicaragua. For the forecast, gentle to moderate southwest winds will persist south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle variable winds north of the monsoon trough through the period, except pulsing to fresh in the Papagayo region each night through Wed. A new set of southwest swell will begin to propagate through the regional waters late Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A trio of relatively weak high pressure centers are analyzed over the area. The first one of 1018 mb is near 30N122W, the second one of 1019 mb is near 23N127W and the third one of 1018 mb is near 21N138W. The gradient that is in place is maintaining generally light to gentle winds north over just about the entire area, with the exception of the far northwest part. This is where a cold front is along a position from 30N134W to 26N140W. Fresh to strong southwest winds are within 120 nm east of the front north of 28N. Seas with these winds are in the range of 8-10 ft. Seas elsewhere over the area are 4-6 ft due to a long- period northwest swell mixing with a southeast to south swell. The front is forecast to become stationary from near 30N136W to 27N140W tonight and dissipate by late Tue. A set of northwest swell producing seas of 8-10 ft will reach from 30N128W to 20N140W by this evening, then decay Tue night into Wed, with seas subsiding to 8 ft north of 15N between 122W-135W. Yet another cold front will approach the far northwest corner of the area Tue evening, and move across that same part of the area Wed and Wed night as it weakens. A large set of northwest swell, with seas of 8-10 ft will move into the area to north of 14N and to the west of a line from near 30N128W to 18N132W and to 14N140W by early on Thu, with the leading edge of the 8 ft seas expected to move out ahead of this next cold front. $$ Aguirre