000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010405
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Nov 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 12N73W 
to the coast of Costa Rica near 11N86W and continues to low 
pressure near 10N105W 1011 mb to low pressure near 09N114W
1011 mb to 09N125W and to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is within 90 nm south of trough
between 109W-112W. Scattered moderate convection is within 
30 nm of the trough between 104W-105W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A recent ASCAT pass shows light to gentle winds over the 
majority of these waters. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are 
along and within about 60 nm of Baja California from Cabo San 
Lazaro to Punta Eugenia. Seas offshore Baja California are 3-5 ft
in a northwest swell and 4-6 ft elsewhere due to a southwest 
swell. Light to gentle variable winds are over the Gulf of 
California, where seas are 2-3 ft.

For the forecast, northwest swell offshore of Mexico will 
gradually subside, with light to gentle winds continuing through 
late Mon. The next set of large northwest swell will begin to 
propagate through the northern offshore waters of Mexico on Tue, 
with northwest winds increasing moderate to fresh through the 
week. Northwest winds will increase to fresh offshore northern 
Baja California beginning on Thu. Light and gentle winds will 
continue across the Gulf of California through the forecast 
period. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent ASCAT pass depicts gentle to moderate southwest to 
west winds south of the monsoon trough, and mainly light and 
variable winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft due 
to a southwest swell.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted over the offshores 
waters from Panama to northern Nicaragua.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southwest winds will 
persist south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle 
variable winds north of the monsoon trough through the period, 
except pulsing to fresh in the Papagayo region each night through
Wed. A new set of southwest swell will begin to propagate 
through the regional waters late Tue.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1018 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 25N122W. A ridge
extends from this high to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
associated gradient is maintaining generally light to gentle
winds north over just about the entire area, with the exception 
of the far northwest part. This is where a cold front is along 
a position from 30N136W to 27N140W. Fresh to strong southwest 
winds are within 120 nm east of the front north of 28N. Seas 
with these winds are in the range of 8-10 ft. Seas elsewhere over
the area are 4-6 ft due to a long-period northwest swell mixing 
with a southeast to south swell. The front is forecast to become
stationary from near 30N136W to 27N140W Mon night and dissipate 
by late Tue. A set of northwest swell producing seas of 7-10 ft 
will reach from 30N128W to 20N140W by Mon evening, then decay Tue
and Tue night, with seas subsiding to 8 ft north of 15N between 
122W-135W. Yet another cold front will approach the far 
northwest corner of the area Tue evening, and move across that 
same part of the area Wed and Wed night as it weakens. This front
will usher in a large set of northwest swell, with seas of 8-10 
ft expected north of 14N and to the west of a line from near 
30N128W to 18N132W and to 14N140W by early on Thu.

$$
Aguirre