000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312209
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Oct 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the northern coast of Costa Rica
near 10N85W to a 1011 mb low pres near 10N105W to 1011 mb low 
pres near 09N113W to 10N134W, then resumes from 09N135W to 
09N139W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-13N and 
E of 99W, and near 260 nm south semicircle of both areas of low 
pressure along the monsoon trough. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent scatterometer pass indicate light and gentle winds in the
Gulf of California, with seas around 2 to 3 ft along the Gulf. 
Light and gentle NW-N winds continue elsewhere offshore of 
Mexico with seas to 5 ft. Further southeast, scattered moderate
convection is noted N of 14N from Puerto Vallarta southeast to 
Manzanillo. Seas 4 to 6 ft are noted with light and gentle winds
along the Mexican coast.

For the forecast, NW swell offshore of Mexico will gradually 
subside with light to gentle winds continuing through late Mon. 
The next set of large NW swell will approach offshore of Mexico 
Tuesday, with NW winds increasing moderate to fresh through the 
week. Light and gentle winds will persist across the Gulf of 
California through the forecast period. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Latest ASCAT pass indicates gentle to moderate S-SW winds are S 
of the monsoon trough, with moderate to locally fresh winds along
the Gulf of Papagayo, and mainly light and variable winds north 
of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in a moderate southerly
swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW winds will persist south
of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle variable winds N of 
the monsoon trough, pulsing to moderate in the Papagayo region 
each night and prevailing through Wednesday. A moderate SW swell
will subside today. A new set of SW swell returns into Tuesday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1019 mb high pressure centered near 24N123W extends across the
basin keeping light to gentle winds N of 12N to 29N and W of 
120W. Moderate trades dominate the waters N of the convergence 
zone to 12N with moderate to fresh southerly flow S of the 
convergence zone. NW-N swell continues to propagate and gradually
subside across the open waters with seas to 5 ft W of 103W. In 
the far NW, fresh to strong SW winds are entering the forecast 
area from 24N to 30N and W of 132W ahead of the next approaching
cold front.

For the forecast, winds will diminish today across a great
portion of the E Pacific waters as the pressure gradient 
slackens and high pressure dominates the region. Fresh to 
strong S-SW winds will continue to increase ahead of the next 
cold front entering the area this evening. The front will 
dissipate and associated winds will diminish across the area, but
higher seas will persist through Tuesday. This front will also 
bring a new set of NW swell which will propagate southeast 
through midweek.

$$
Torres