000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311602
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Oct 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the northern coast of Costa Rica
near 09N84W to a 1011 mb low pres near 10N105W to 1010 mb low 
pres near 10N113W to 1011 mb low pres near 10N135W and to
09N139W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-14N and
E of 99W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle variable winds prevail across the Gulf of
California. Recent altimeter pass indicate seas 2 to 3 ft 
persist across the Gulf of California. A weak 1012 mb low 
press is analyzed near Cabo San Lucas, but at this time it is 
not producing any significant convection near the area. Gentle 
to moderate NW-N winds continue elsewhere offshore of Mexico. NW
swell offshore of Mexico will continue to propagate towards the 
southeast with seas gradually subsiding to less than 7 ft. 
Further southeast, a surface trough along the Mexican coast from 
Puerto Vallarta southeast to Manzanillo is producing showers and 
thunderstorms near the area north of 14N and between 100W to 106W.
Seas 4 to 6 ft are noted with light and gentle winds across the 
region.

For the forecast, NW swell offshore of Mexico will gradually 
subside with light to gentle winds continuing through Monday. 
The next set of large NW swell will approach offshore of Mexico
Tuesday, with winds increasing moderate to fresh through the week.
Light and gentle winds will persist across the Gulf of California
through the forecast period. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Latest ASCAT pass indicates gentle to moderate S-SW winds are S 
of the monsoon trough, with moderate to locally fresh winds along
the Gulf of Papagayo, and mainly light and variable winds north 
of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in a moderate southerly
swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW winds will persist south
of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle variable winds N of 
the monsoon trough, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo 
region each night beginning this evening and prevailing through 
Wednesday. A moderate SW swell will subside today. A new set of 
SW swell returns into Tuesday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak high pressure centered near 30N124W extends across the 
basin keeping light to gentle winds N of 12N to 29N and W of 
120W. Moderate trades dominate the waters N of the convergence 
zone to 12N with moderate to fresh southerly flow S of the 
convergence zone. NW-N swell continues to propagate and gradually
subside across the open waters with seas to 7 ft W of 103W. Seas
of 5 to 7 ft in remnant mixed swell prevail E of 103W. In the 
far NW, fresh to strong SW winds are entering the forecast area 
from 26N to 31N and W of 136W ahead of the next approaching cold 
front.

For the forecast, winds will diminish today across the majority 
of the waters as the pressure gradient slackens as high pressure
dominates across the region. Fresh to strong S-SW winds will 
continue to increase ahead of the next cold front that is forecast
to enter near 30N140W this evening. The front will dissipate and
associated winds will diminish across the area, but higher seas 
will persist through Tuesday. This front will also bring a new 
set of NW swell which will propagate southeast through midweek.

$$
Torres