708 
AXPZ20 KNHC 310907
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Oct 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the northern coast of Costa Rica
near 10N86W to a 1011 mb low pres near 10N114W to 1012 mb low 
pres near 08N125W to 1012 mb low pres near 10N137W. The ITCZ 
extends from 10N137W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 09N-11N and E of 89W, from 06N-11N 
between 101W-117W, and from 10N-14N and W of 138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle variable winds prevail across the Gulf of
California. Latest altimeter pass indicates seas 2 to 3 ft 
prevail in the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds continue 
elsewhere offshore of Mexico. NW swell offshore of Mexico will 
continue to propagate towards the southeast with seas up to 8 ft 
in the proximity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

For the forecast, NW swell offshore of Mexico will gradually 
subside with light to gentle winds continuing through today. The
next set of large NW swell will approach the Baja California 
area, with winds increasing moderate to fresh through mid week. 
Light and gentle winds will persist across the Gulf of California
through the forecast period. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Latest ASCAT pass indicates gentle to moderate S-SW winds are S 
of the monsoon trough, with moderate to locally fresh winds along
the Gulf of Papagayo, and mainly light and variable winds north 
of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in a moderate southerly
swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW winds will persist south
of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle variable winds N of 
the monsoon trough, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo 
region each night beginning this evening and prevailing through 
Wednesday. A moderate SW swell will subside today. A new set of 
SW swell returns into Tuesday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate trades dominate the waters N of the convergence zone 
with moderate to fresh southerly flow S of the convergence zone.
NW-N swell continues to propagate and gradually subside across 
the open waters with seas to 8 ft W of 103W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft 
in remnant mixed swell prevail E of 103W.

For the forecast, winds will diminish today across the majority 
of the waters as the pressure gradient slackens with high 
pressure across the region. Fresh to strong S-SW winds will 
increase ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to enter 
near 30N140W this evening. The front will dissipate and 
associated winds will diminish across the area, but higher seas 
will persist through Tuesday. A new set of NW swell will breach 
southeast of 30N140W today with the next front, propagating 
southeast through midweek.

$$
ERA