000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310332
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Oct 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the northern coast of Costa Rica
near 11N86W to a 1011 mb low pres near 10N115W to 1012 mb low 
pres near 11N125W to 1011 mb low pres near 10N137W. The ITCZ 
extends from 10N137W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 08N-12N and E of 87W, from 06N-11N 
between 100W-122W, and from 07N-13N and W of 134W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle variable winds prevail across the Gulf of
California. Latest altimeter pass indicates seas 2 to 3 ft 
prevail in the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds continue 
elsewhere offshore of Mexico. The large NW swell offshore of 
Mexico will continue to propagate towards the southeast with 
seas up to 8 ft in the proximity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

For the forecast, NW swell offshore of Mexico will gradually 
subside with light to gentle winds continuing through the 
weekend. The next set of large NW swell will approach the Baja 
California area by early next week, with winds increasing 
moderate to fresh through mid week. Light and gentle winds will 
persist across the Gulf of California through the forecast 
period. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Latest ASCAT pass indicates gentle to moderate S-SW winds are S 
of the monsoon trough, with moderate to locally fresh winds along
the Gulf of Papagayo, and mainly light and variable winds north 
of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in a moderate southerly
swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW winds will persist south
of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle variable winds N of 
the monsoon trough, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo 
region each night beginning on Sun evening and prevailing through
Wednesday. A moderate SW swell will subside through Sunday. A 
new set of SW swell returns into Tuesday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate trades dominate the waters N of the convergence zone 
with moderate to fresh southerly flow S of the convergence zone.
NW-N swell continues to propagate and gradually subside across 
the open waters with seas to 8 ft W of 103W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft 
in remnant mixed swell prevail E of 103W.

For the forecast, winds will diminish through Sun across the 
majority of the waters as the pressure gradient slackens with 
high pressure across the region. Fresh to strong S-SW winds will 
increase ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to enter 
near 30N140W on Sun evening. The front will dissipate and 
associated winds will diminish by early next week but higher seas
will persist through Tuesday. A new set of NW swell will breach 
southeast of 30N140W Sun with the next front, propagating 
southeast through early next week.

$$
ERA