000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302200
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Oct 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the northern coast of Costa Rica
near 10N85W to a 1011 mb low pres near 09N106W to 1012 mb low 
pres near 10N114W to 1011 mb low pres near 09N136W. The ITCZ 
extends from 09N137W to beyond 09N139W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted along and within 200 nm on either side of 
the monsoon trough mainly E of 102W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Light to gentle variable winds prevail across the Gulf of California
today. Latest altimeter pass indicates seas 2 to 3 ft prevail in
the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds continue elsewhere offshore
of Mexico. The large NW swell offshore of Mexico will continue to
propagate towards the southeast with seas up to 8 ft. 

For the forecast, NW swell offshore of Mexico will gradually subside
with light to gentle winds continuing through the weekend. The next 
set of large NW swell will approach the Baja California area by early
next week with winds increasing moderate to fresh through mid week.
Light and gentle winds will persist across the Gulf of California
through the forecast period. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

ASCAT pass indicates gentle to moderate S-SW winds are S of the 
monsoon trough, with moderate to locally fresh winds along the 
Gulf of Papagayo, and mainly light and variable winds north of 
the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in a moderate southerly 
swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW winds will persist south
of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle variable winds N of 
the monsoon trough, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo 
region each night beginning on Sun evening and prevailing through
Wednesday. A moderate s-sw swell will persist through Sat, subsiding
through Sunday. A new set of sw swell returns into Tuesday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate trades dominate the waters N of the convergence zone 
with moderate to fresh southerly flow S of the convergence zone.
NW-N swell continues to propagate and gradually subside across 
the open waters with seas to 8 ft W of 98W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in 
remnant mixed swell prevail E of 99W.

For the forecast, winds will diminish this weekend across the 
majority of the waters as the pressure gradient slackens with  
high pressure across the region. Fresh to strong S-SW winds will 
increase ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to enter 
near 30N140W on Sun. The front will dissipate and associated 
winds will diminish by early next week but higher seas will
persist through Tuesday. A new set of NW swell will breach 
southeast of 30N140W early Sun with the next front, propagating 
southeast through early next week.

$$
Torres