000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300223
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Oct 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong low pressure across the
eastern U.S. will maintain a tight pressure gradient in the 
western Gulf of Mexico tonight. This will allow for the 
northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec to continue 
through 12Z Sat. Peak seas are estimated to reach up to 12 ft. 
Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the northern coast of Costa Rica
near 09N84W to 1011 mb low pres near 11N115W to another 1011 mb 
low pres near 09N135W. The ITCZ extends from 09N135W to beyond 
10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within
240 nm S of the monsoon trough mainly E of 112W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Light to gentle variable winds prevail across the Gulf of 
California currently. Latest altimeter pass indicates seas 2 to 
3 ft prevail in the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds continue
elsewhere offshore of Mexico. The large NW swell offshore of 
Mexico will continue to propagate towards the southeast with seas
of 8 to 9 ft N of 25N and W of 117W. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail E
of 118W.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across the
Gulf of California through the forecast period. Large NW swell W
of 118W will gradually subside tonight with light to gentle 
winds continuing through the weekend. The next set of large NW 
swell will approach the Baja California area by early next week 
with winds increasing to moderate to fresh through mid week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S-SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon 
trough, locally fresh near the entrance to the Gulf of Guayaquil,
with mainly light and variable winds north of the monsoon trough.
Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore of Ecuador in a 
moderate southerly swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW winds will persist south
of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle variable winds N of 
the monsoon trough, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo 
region each night beginning on Sun evening and prevailing 
through early next week. A moderate southerly swell will persist 
through Sat, subsiding thereafter.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters N of the convergence
zone with gentle to moderate southerly flow S of the convergence
zone. Large NW-N swell continues to propagate and are gradually 
subsiding across the open waters with seas of 8 to 9 ft W of 
99W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in remnant mixed swell prevail E of 99W.

For the forecast, winds will diminish this weekend across the 
majority of the waters as the pressure gradient slackens. Fresh 
to strong S-SW winds will increase ahead of the next cold front 
that is forecast to enter near 30N140W on Sun. The front will 
dissipate and associated winds will diminish by early next week. 
A new set of NW swell will breach southeast of 30N140W early Sun 
with the next front, propagating southeast through early next 
week.

$$
ERA