704 AXPZ20 KNHC 291547 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Oct 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front moving southward across the Gulf of Mexico is enhancing northerly gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec currently. These conditions will persists through late Sat. Peak seas are estimated to reach up to 12 ft on Friday afternoon. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the northern coast of Costa Rica near 09N85W to 10N103W to 1010 mb low pres near 11N114W to another 1011 mb low pres near 10N134W. The ITCZ continues from 10N134W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the boundary within 200 nm south of the boundary E of 102W to Colombia, and from 103W to 112W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh NW winds dissipate across the Gulf of California this morning with light to gentle variable winds prevailing through the forecast period. Latest altimeter pass indicates seas 2 to 3 ft in the Gulf currently. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds continue elsewhere offshore of Mexico. The large NW swell offshore of Mexico will continue to propagate towards the southeast with seas of 8 to 9 ft N of 25N and W of 118W, highest up to 10 ft near 30N122W. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail E of 118W. For the forecast, large NW swell W of 118W will gradually subside this afternoon. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail west of Baja California today, decreasing to light to gentle through the weekend. The next set of large NW swell will approach the Baja California area by early next week with moderate to fresh wind increasing through mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S-SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon trough, locally fresh near the entrance to the Gulf of Guayaquil, with mainly light and variable winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore of Ecuador in a moderate southerly swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW winds will persist south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle variable winds N of the monsoon trough, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region beginning on Sun and prevailing through early next week. A moderate southerly swell will persist through Sat, subsiding thereafter. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters N of the convergence zone with gentle to moderate southerly flow S of the convergence zone. Large NW-N swell continues to propagate across the open waters with seas of 8 to 9 ft W of 99W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in remnant mixed swell prevail E of 99W. For the forecast, winds will diminish into the weekend across the majority of the waters as the pressure gradient slackens. The next cold front is forecast to slip southeast of 30N140W on Sun with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of it. The front will dissipate and associated winds will diminish by early next week. A new set of NW swell will breach southeast of 30N140W early Sun with the next front, propagating southeast through early next week. $$ Torres