000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290314 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Oct 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front moving southward across the Gulf of Mexico will enhance northerly gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight beginning at 03Z and continue through 06Z Sat. Peak seas are estimated to reach up to 13 ft on Friday afternoon. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 11N107W to 1011 mb low pres near 11N116W to 1011 mb low pres near 10N133W. The ITCZ continues from 10N133W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered showers are noted within 100 nm on either side of the boundaries. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh NW winds will continue weakening overnight through Fri morning, with light to gentle variable winds prevailing through the forecast period. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf currently, except up to 5 ft in the central part. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds prevail elsewhere offshore of Mexico. Large NW swell continues to propagate offshore of Mexico with seas of 8 ft or greater S of 21N and W of 100W, highest up to 12 ft near 12N110W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail E of 100W. For the forecast, large NW swell W of 100W will gradually subside overnight. A reinforcing set will arrive west of Baja California tonight into Friday, subsiding by the weekend. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail west of Baja California, except light to gentle through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S-SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon trough, locally fresh near the entrance to the Gulf of Guayaquil, with mainly light and variable winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore of Ecuador in a moderate southerly swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW winds will persist south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle variable winds N of the monsoon trough, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region Sat night through Mon night. A moderate southerly swell will persist through Sat, subsiding thereafter. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters north of the convergence zone with gentle to moderate southerly flow south of the convergence zone. Large NW-N swell continues to propagate across the open waters with seas of 8 to 11 ft W of 100W. Peak seas of 12 ft are noted near 12N110W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in remnant mixed swell prevail E of 100W. For the forecast, winds will diminish by the end of the week into the weekend across the majority of the waters as the pressure gradient slackens. The next cold front is forecast to slip southeast of 30N140W on Sun with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of it. The front will dissipate and associated winds will diminish by early next week. Meanwhile, the large NW-N swell will gradually decay through the end of the week into the weekend. A new set of NW swell will breach southeast of 30N140W early Sun with the next front, propagating southeast through early next week. $$ ERA