000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280818 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Oct 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0810 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 107W north of 04N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 14N between 105W and 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to across Panama, Costa Rica and the Papagayo region to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N99W to 12N110W to 1010 mb low pressure near 12N116W to 10N125W to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N132W to 11N134W. The ITCZ extends from 11N134W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 77W and 82W, from 04N to 07N between 83W and 90W, from 12N to 14N between 105W and 107W, from 09N to 14N between 111W and 120W, and from 09N to 12N between 136W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong winds are occurring in the Gulf of California south of 30N and west of 110W with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the Gulf. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in the Gulf, except to 7 ft in the central part. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds prevail elsewhere offshore of Mexico, except SW-W offshore of Oaxaca and Chiapas. Large NW swell continues to propagate offshore of Mexico with seas of 8 ft or greater west of 103W, highest up to 11 ft from the Revillagigedo Islands to the northwest. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail east of 105W. For the forecast, large NW swell west of 100W will subside through Thu. A reinforcing set will arrive west of Baja California tonight, subsiding by the weekend. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail west of Baja California, except light to gentle Sat through early Sun. Fresh to strong winds in the central Gulf of California, and moderate to fresh elsewhere in the Gulf of California will diminish tonight into Fri. A fresh to near gale force northerly gap wind event is forecast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through Sat, then pulsing to fresh to strong thereafter. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S-SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough, locally fresh near the entrance to the Gulf of Guayaquil, with mainly light and variable winds north of the monsoon trough Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore of Ecuador in moderate southerly swell. For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate SW winds will persist south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle variable winds north of the monsoon trough, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region Sat night through Mon night. A moderate southerly swell will persist through Sat, subsiding thereafter. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters north of the convergence zone with gentle to moderate southerly flow south of the convergence zone. Large NW-N swell continues to propagate across the open waters with seas of 8 ft or greater west of 103W. The peak seas have subsided a bit, now around 13 ft near 12N116W. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in remnant mixed swell prevail east of 103W. For the forecast, winds will diminish by the end of the week into the weekend across the majority of the waters as the pressure gradient slackens. The next cold front is forecast to slip southeast of 30N140W by early Sun with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of it. The front will dissipate and associated winds will diminish early next week. Meanwhile, the large NW-N swell will gradually decay through the end of the week into the weekend. A new set of NW swell will breach southeast of 30N140W early Sun with the next front, propagating southeast through early next week. $$ Lewitsky