000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280304 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Oct 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 106W north of 05N, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant deep convection is noted. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N75W to across Costa Rica and the Papagayo region to 11N90W to 1012 mb low pressure near 11N99W to 15N104W to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N116W to 10N120W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 77W and 84W, from 10N to 13N between 97W and 101W, from 09N to 13N between 109W and 120W, and from 09N to 11N between 133W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong winds are occurring in the Gulf of California south of 30N and west of 110W with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the Gulf. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in the Gulf, highest in the central part. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds prevail elsewhere offshore of Mexico from near Cabo Corrientes northward to the Baja California Peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Large NW swell continues to propagate offshore of Mexico with seas of 8 ft or greater west of 105W, highest up to 12 ft from the Revillagigedo Islands to the NW-N. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail east of 105W. For the forecast, large NW swell west of 100W will subside through Thu. A reinforcing set will arrive west of Baja California Thu night, subsiding by the weekend. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail west of Baja California, except light to gentle Sat through early Sun. Fresh to strong winds in the central Gulf of California, and moderate to fresh elsewhere in the Gulf of California will diminish Thu night into Fri. A fresh to near gale force northerly gap wind event is forecast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night through Sat, then pulsing to fresh to strong thereafter. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S-SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough, with mainly light and variable winds north of the monsoon trough, locally moderate in the Papagayo region. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore of Ecuador in moderate southerly swell. For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate SW winds will persist south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle variable winds north of the monsoon trough, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region Sat night through Mon night. A moderate southerly swell will persist through Sat, subsiding thereafter. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters north of the convergence zone with moderate to locally fresh southerly flow south of the convergence zone. Large NW-N swell continues to propagate across the open waters with seas of 8 ft or greater west of 105W. The peak seas have subsided a bit, now around 14 ft roughly from 09N to 12N between 115W and 135W. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in remnant mixed swell prevail east of 105W. For the forecast, winds will diminish by the end of the week into the weekend across the majority of the waters as the pressure gradient slackens. The next cold front is forecast to slip southeast of 30N140W by early Sun with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of it. The front will dissipate and associated winds will diminish early next week. Meanwhile, the large NW-N swell will gradually decay through the end of the week into the weekend. A new set of NW swell will breach southeast of 30N140W early Sun with the next front, propagating southeast through early next week. $$ Lewitsky