000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272054
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Oct 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 105W north of 08N, moving
W at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 
13N to 16N between 103W to 109W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1010 mb low pres near 11N76.5W 
to 1011 mb low pres near 11N98W, then resumes from 15.5N103W to 
1012 mb low pres near 11.5N115W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09.5N E of 88W,
and from 09.5N to 13.5N between 89W and 99W. Scattered moderate 
to strong convection is noted within 60 nm N and 120 nm S of 
monsoon trough between 110W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front has moved southward across the offshore waters in
the past 48 hours and is dissipating across the offshore waters 
and beyond along about 21N. The remainder of the front is moving 
across northeastern Mexico and the far NW Gulf of Mexico. 
Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds prevail this afternoon 
across the offshore waters of Baja, with fresh NW-N winds now
extending from the northern through central Gulf of California. 
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Large NW swell is 
outrunning the front with seas of 8 to 14 ft offshore of Baja 
California. Seas are 5 to 8 ft elsewhere over the open waters in 
mixed swell, with mainly 3 to 6 ft seas in the Gulf of California,
highest in the central part.

Winds will increase to fresh to strong in the central Gulf of 
California this afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient 
tightens. Seas across central portions of the Gulf will build to 
6-8 ft tonight. Large NW swell will continue to propagate across 
the open offshore waters with seas in excess of 12 ft expected 
west of Baja California through tonight. A cold front forecast to
move through the western Gulf of Mexico will bring fresh to 
strong gap winds to the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night and 
continue through the upcoming weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are occurring south of the 
monsoon trough, with mainly light and variable winds north of the
monsoon trough, locally moderate in the Papagayo region. Seas 
remain 4 to 6 ft, except 6 to 7 ft offshore of Ecuador in 
moderate southerly swell. 

Mainly gentle to moderate SW winds will persist over the 
offshore waters through the next several days, becoming
moderate to fresh late Fri through Sat. Moderate southerly swell
will prevail through the next several days with seas less than 8
ft. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The dissipating frontal boundary has become ill defined from 
south of Baja California Sur near 21N109W to 20N120W to beyond 
21.5N130W. Large NW swell continues to outrun the frontal 
remnants with seas of 8 ft or greater covering the majority of 
the waters north of 01N and west of 104W, with peak seas around 
14 ft from 09N to 22N between 115W and 130W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft 
elsewhere in remnant mixed swell. Mainly moderate to fresh NE to 
E winds prevail across the open waters north of the convergence 
zone, while moderate to fresh S to SE winds prevail to the south 
of the convergence zone.

The frontal remnants will dissipate through tonight. Winds are 
forecast to diminish across the open waters by the end of the 
week as the pressure gradient slackens. The next cold front will 
approach 30N140W Sun with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of it 
through Sun night. Meanwhile, the large NW-N swell will continue
to propagate southward while gradually decaying through the end 
of the week. New NW swell is expected with the next front this 
weekend.

$$
Stripling