436 
AXPZ20 KNHC 271557
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Oct 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1510 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 104W north of 09N into 
coastal southwestern Mexico, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate  
convection is noted from 13.5N to 16.5N between 104W to 105.5W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1010 mb low pres near 10.5N77W 
to 1011 mb low pres near 11.5N98W, then resumes from 13.5N106W 
to 1011 mb low pres near 10.5N116W to 11N132W to 1010 mb low 
pres near 09N141.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted N of 05.5N E of 88W, from 09.5N to 13.5N 
between 88W and 99W, and within 120 nm either side of monsoon 
trough between 106W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front has moved southward across the offshore waters in
the past 48 hours and dissipated across the offshore waters and
beyond along 21.5N. The remainder of the front is moving across 
northern Mexico near the border with Texas. Fresh to strong NW-N
winds behind the front have diminished to fresh this morning 
across the offshore waters of Baja, with moderate to fresh NW-N 
winds in the northern through central Gulf of California. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Large NW swell is 
outrunning the front with seas of 8 to 15 ft offshore of Baja 
California. Seas are 5 to 8 ft elsewhere over the open waters in 
mixed swell, with mainly 3 to 6 ft seas in the Gulf of 
California, highest in the central part.

Fresh to strong winds will develop in the central Gulf of 
California later today as the pressure gradient tightens. Large 
NW swell will continue to propagate across the open offshore 
waters with seas in excess of 12 ft expected west of Baja 
California through tonight. A cold front forecast to move through
the western Gulf of Mexico will bring fresh to strong gap winds 
to the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night and continue through the 
upcoming weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are occurring south of the 
monsoon trough, with mainly light and variable winds north of the
monsoon trough, locally moderate in the Papagayo region. Seas 
are mainly 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore of Ecuador in 
moderate southerly swell. 

Mainly gentle to moderate SW winds will persist over the 
offshore waters through the next several days, except light and 
variable winds north of the monsoon trough. A moderate southerly 
swell will prevail through the next several days with seas less 
than 8 ft. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening cold front has become ill defined from south of Baja
California Sur near 22N110W to 21.5N120W to beyond 21.5N130W. 
Large NW swell is outrunning the front with seas of 8 ft or 
greater covering the majority of the waters north of 02N and west
of 108W, with seas around 15 ft across the central portion of 
that area per recent altimeter data. Seas are 5 to 8 ft elsewhere
in remnant mixed swell. Mainly moderate to fresh NE to E winds 
prevail across the open waters north of the convergence zone, 
while moderate to fresh S to SE winds prevail to the south of the
convergence zone.

The frontal remnants will continue to weaken as it moves 
southward and completely dissipate through tonight. Winds are 
forecast to diminish across the open waters by the end of the 
week as the pressure gradient slackens. The next cold front may 
approach 30N140W Sat night with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of
it into Sun. Meanwhile, the large NW-N swell will continue to 
propagate southward while gradually decaying through the end of 
the week. Another set of NW swell is likely with the next front 
this weekend.

$$
Stripling