000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270236 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Oct 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 101W north of 04N into coastal southwestern Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is noted. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1011 mb low pressure near 10N77W to 10N88W to 13N95W, then resumes from 14N104W to 1012 mb low pressure near 10N115W to 08N130W to 1012 mb low pressure near 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 110W and 118W, from 07N to 10N between 119W and 124W, from 06N to 11N between 130W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 105W and 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving across the central Gulf of California to across the Baja California Peninsula and southwestward. Fresh to strong NW-N winds follow the front west of Cabo San Lazaro with moderate to fresh NW-N winds in the central Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Large NW swell is outrunning the front with seas of 8 to 16 ft offshore of Baja California. Seas are 6 to 8 ft elsewhere over the open waters in mixed swell, with mainly 3 to 5 ft seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds behind a cold front west of Baja California will diminish early Wed as the front weakens. Fresh to strong winds behind the same boundary will develop in the central Gulf of California Wed evening as the pressure gradient tightens. Large NW swell will continue to propagate across the open offshore waters with seas in excess of 12 ft expected west of Baja California through Wed night. A cold front forecast to move through the western Gulf of Mexico will bring fresh to strong gap winds to the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night and continue through the upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough, with mainly light and variable winds north of the monsoon trough, locally moderate in the Papagayo region. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore of Ecuador in moderate southerly swell. For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate SW winds will persist over the offshore waters through the next several days, except light and variable winds north of the monsoon trough. A moderate southerly swell will prevail through the next several days with seas less than 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front extends from the Baja California Peninsula near 24N112W to 21N130W. Large NW swell is outrunning the front with seas of 8 ft or greater covering the majority of the waters north of 02N and west of 110W, with seas around 18 ft near 27N123W per recent altimeter data. Seas are 6 to 8 ft elsewhere in remnant mixed swell. Mainly moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail across the open waters north of the convergence zone, while moderate to fresh S to SE winds prevail to the south of the convergence zone. For the forecast, the front will continue to weaken as it moves southward and eventually dissipate through mid-week. Winds are forecast to diminish across the open waters by the end of the week as the pressure gradient slackens. The next cold front may approach 30N140W Sat night with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of it into Sun. Meanwhile, the large NW-N swell will continue to propagate southward while gradually decaying through the end of the week. Another set of NW swell is likely with the next front this weekend. $$ Lewitsky