000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262120
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Oct 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2010 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 98W-99W north of 02N into
coastal Mexico, moving W at 10 kt. No significant deep convection
is noted.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1010 mb near 10N76.5W 
to 08.5N81W to 11N86W to 12.5N94W, then resumes from 16N102W to 
low pres 1012 mb near 10N115W to 09.5N126W to low pres 1012 mb 
near 09N139W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted N of 03N E of 85W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted from 11N to 16.5N between 104W and 112W, from 08N to 
13N between 112W and 118W, and from 07N to 10N between 121W and 
139W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving across the northern Gulf of California 
and Baja California Norte, and extends well offshore beyond 
24.5N120W. Large NW swell is outrunning the front with seas of 8
to 18 ft moving into the waters offshore of Baja California, 
with the highest seas north of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 7 to 12 ft
elsewhere over the open waters in mixed swell. Fresh to strong
northerly winds are spilling into the northern Gulf of California
behind the front, while ahead of the front, light to moderate 
SW-W winds prevail across central and southern portions. Seas 
are to 6 ft north of 29N, and 2 to 5 ft south of 29N inside the 
Gulf. Fresh to locally strong NW-N winds are noted elsewhere west
of Baja California to 118W to the north of the front, while 
mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. 

As the front continues moving southward during the next few 
days, look for fresh to strong winds to develop on Wed in the 
central Gulf of California, where seas will build 6 to 7 ft. 
Large NW swell will continue to propagate across the open 
offshore waters with seas in excess of 12 ft expected west of 
Baja California through early Thu. Northerly fresh to strong 
winds will continue along the Baja California offshore waters N
of 26N through Wed morning before gradually diminishing. 
Looking ahead, a cold front moving through the western Gulf of 
Mexico will bring fresh to strong gap winds to the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec by Thu night and continue into the upcoming weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are occurring south of the 
monsoon trough, with mainly light and variable winds north of the
monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 6 to 7 ft offshore 
Ecuador in moderate southerly swell. 

Mainly gentle to moderate SW winds will persist over the Central
American offshore waters through the rest of the week and into 
the weekend, except light and variable north of the monsoon 
trough. Moderate southerly swell will prevail through the next 
several days with seas less than 8 ft. Scattered thunderstorms 
are possible especially along and south of Panama and Costa Rica 
through tonight.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening cold front extends from Baja California Norte near 
27N114W to 24.5N120W to 23N130W. Large NW swell is outrunning 
the front with seas of 8 ft or greater covering the majority of 
the waters north of 08N and west of 105W, with seas around 18 ft
along 30N per morning altimeter data. Seas are 7 to 9 ft 
elsewhere west of 105W in remnant mixed swell, with 5 to 7 ft 
across the remainder of the open waters. Mainly moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds prevail across the open waters north of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ, while moderate to fresh S to SE winds
prevail to the south of these boundaries.

The front will move south and gradually dissipate through Thu 
while the large NW swell continues to propagate southward. Seas 
of 8 ft or greater in this NW swell is expected to reach the 
equator by Wed evening. Winds north of the convergence zone will
diminish by the end of the week into the weekend as the pressure
gradient across the region slackens. Little change in winds is 
expected south of the convergence zone. Seas are forecast to 
subside to less than 8 ft across the open waters early during the
upcoming weekend.

$$
Stripling