000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Oct 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 98W north of 02N into coastal Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is noted. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1010 mb near 09.5N76W to 08N80W to 10N85W, then resumes from 17N102W to low pres 1012 mb near 12N109W to low pres 1011 mb near 10N115W to low pres 1011 mb near 09N131.5W to low pres 1011 mb near 09N138.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 04N E of 84W, and N of 10.5N between 86.5W and 90W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 17.5N between 104W and 114W, from 07.5N to 12n between 104W and 131W, and from 07.5N to 10N between 132W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Heavy rains associated with the remnants of dissipated Rick will continue to spread across the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan today, and could produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches. This rainfall will likely result in dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. Please consult products from your local weather office. A cold front is moving across the northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte, and extends well offshore beyond 26N120W. Large NW swell is outrunning the front with seas of 8 to 18 ft moving into the waters offshore of Baja California, with the highest seas north of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 7 to 12 ft elsewhere over the open waters in mixed swell. Ahead of the front, fresh SW-W winds are funneling through gaps and across portions of north and central Gulf of California. Seas are to 6 ft north of 29N, and 2 to 5 ft elsewhere inside the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are noted elsewhere west of Baja California. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. As the front continues moving SE during the next few days, look for fresh to strong winds to develop on Wed in the central Gulf of California. Large NW swell will continue to propagate across the open offshore waters with seas 8-16 ft expected west of Baja California through mid-week. Northerly fresh to strong winds will also develop off Baja California near Punta Eugenia this afternoon and evening. Looking ahead, a cold front moving through the western Gulf of Mexico will bring fresh to strong gap winds to the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu night and continue into the upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough, with mainly light and variable winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 6 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador in moderate southerly swell. Mainly gentle to moderate SW winds will persist over the Central American offshore waters through the rest of the week and into the weekend, except light and variable north of the monsoon trough. Moderate southerly swell will prevail through the next several days with seas less than 8 ft. Scattered thunderstorms are possible especially along and south of Panama through tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from Baja California Norte near 29N114.5W to 26N120W to 24N130W, then dissipating to 23N140W. Large NW swell is outrunning the front with seas of 8 ft or greater covering the majority of the waters north of 08N and west of 105W, with seas around 20 ft along 30N per recent altimeter data. Seas are 7 to 9 ft elsewhere west of 105W in remnant mixed swell, with 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters. NW-N winds may be locally strong just north of the front and east of 120W through the remainder of this morning. Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters. The front will gradually dissipate through mid-week while the large NW swell continues to propagate southward, with seas of 8 ft or greater reaching the equator by Wed night. Winds north of the convergence zone will diminish by the end of the week into the weekend as the pressure gradient across the region slackens. Little change in winds is expected south of the convergence zone. Seas are forecast to subside to less than 8 ft across the open waters early during the upcoming weekend. $$ Stripling