000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260836 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Oct 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0710 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 80W/81W from the western Caribbean Sea southward across Panama to near the Colombia-Ecuador border, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave axis is along 95W/06W north of 02N into Mexico near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is noted. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to across Panama, Costa Rica to just offshore of the remainder of Central America to 13N92W, then resumes from 16N103W to 1012 mb low pressure near 12N108W to 1013 mb low pres near 11N114W to 1012 mb low pressure near 09N132W to 1012 mb low pressure near 09N139W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 77W and 83W, from 10N to 15N between 106W and 112W, from 07N to 11N between 113W and 117W, from 08N to 11N between 119W and 123W, and from 09N to 11N between 125W and 134W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 135W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Heavy rains associated with the remnants of dissipated Rick will continue to spread across the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan and could produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches. This rainfall will likely result in dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. Swells generated earlier by Rick will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through early today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A cold front is moving across the northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte. Large NW swell is outrunning the front with seas of 8 to 16 ft moving into the waters offshore of Baja California, with the highest seas north of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 6 to 8 ft elsewhere over the open waters in mixed swell. Ahead of the front, SW-W winds of fresh to strong are funneling through gaps and into the northern Gulf of California with seas to 7 ft north of 30N, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere in the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are noted elsewhere west of Baja California. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, strong SW gap winds in the northern Gulf of California ahead of and behind a cold front will diminish later this morning. Also behind the front, fresh to strong winds will develop on Wed in the central Gulf of California. Large NW swell will continue to propagate across the open offshore waters with seas 12 ft or greater possible west of Baja California through mid-week. Northerly fresh to strong winds could also develop off Baja California near Punta Eugenia this afternoon and evening. Looking ahead, a cold front moving through the western Gulf of Mexico will bring fresh to strong gap winds to the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu night and continue into the upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough, with mainly light and variable winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador in moderate southerly swell. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and south of Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate SW winds persist over the Central American offshore waters through the rest of the week and into the weekend, except light and variable north of the monsoon trough. A moderate southerly swell will prevail through the next several days with seas less than 8 ft. Scattered thunderstorms are possible especially along and south of Panama through tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Several weak areas of low pressure are embedded along the monsoon trough west of 110W. A cold front extends from 30N116W to 26N123W to 24N130W, then dissipating to 24N140W. A set of NW swell is outrunning the front with seas of 8 ft or greater covering the majority of the waters north of 10N and west of 115W, with seas around 20 ft along 30N per recent altimeter data. Seas are 7 to 9 ft elsewhere west of 105W in remnant mixed swell, with 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters. NW-N winds may be locally strong just north of the front and east of 120W this morning. Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters. For the forecast, the front will gradually dissipate through mid-week while the large NW swell continues to propagate southward, with seas of 8 ft or greater reaching the equator by Wed night. Winds north of the convergence zone will diminish by the end of the week into the weekend as the pressure gradient across the region slackens. Little change in winds is expected south of the convergence zone. Seas are forecast to subside to less than 8 ft across the open waters early during the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky