733 AXPZ20 KNHC 252147 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Oct 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Rick is centered inland near 20.0N 102.5W at 25/2100 UTC moving N at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along the Mexican coast N of 17N between 101W and 103W. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Rick is expected to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico by tonight or Tuesday morning. Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through early Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 93W N of 01N into Mexico, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 13N95W. The monsoon trough continues southwest of TD Rick near 13N109W to a 1012 mb low near 10N113W to another 1012 mb low near 11N122W to a third 1012 mb low near 09N131W to the final 1012 mb low near 11N136W to 10N140W. In addition to the convection associated with Tropical Depression Rick described in the Special Features section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N and E of 92W in addition to 07N to 12N between 110W to 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Depression Rick. Scatterometer satellite data indicates light to gentle winds prevail across most of the Mexican offshore waters. Fresh winds still continue off of the Michoacan and western Guerrero coastline as TD Rick moves farther inland. Additionally, fresh southerly winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California ahead of an incoming cold front. Seas near 8 ft still continue near Socorro Island along with the offshore waters along Michoacan and Guerrero. The NW swell is mixing with shorter- period swell generated by Rick over Mexican offshore waters south of Cabo Corrientes. A new round of NW swell is beginning to approach the far western offshore waters of Baja California. For the forecast, the new NW swell continue to move across the Baja California offshores tonight and spread southward to Baja California Sur and Socorro Island Tue. Peak swell Tue and Tue night may reach 15 ft off Baja California, before decaying by Wed into Thu. Strong W gap winds are forecast tonight in the northern Gulf of California ahead of a cold front. Behind the front, fresh to strong winds could develop on Wed in the central Gulf of California. Northerly fresh to strong winds could also develop off Baja California near Punta Eugenia on Tue and Tue night. Looking ahead, a cold front moving through the western Gulf of Mexico will bring fresh to strong gap winds to the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu night and continue into late week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon trough with mainly light and variable winds to the north. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. Showers continue south of the Gulf of Panama with thunderstorms along the coast of Costa Rica, Panama, and western Colombia. Some thunderstorms are noted in the offshore waters south of El Salvador. Mainly gentle to moderate SW winds persist over the Central American offshore waters through the rest of the week. Seas will range from 4 to 7 ft in southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front stretches across the Pacific waters from 30N127W to 26N140W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are occurring ahead of the front with gentle to moderate N to NW winds behind the front. Some showers are noted along the boundary. Meanwhile, a large area of long period NW swell is moving across the area with seas of 8 to 10 ft most areas N of 10N. This area of swell is expected to subside below 8 ft through tonight. Another reinforcing group of large NW swell is pushing southward in the NW basin, N of 19N and W of 119W with seas peaking around 18 ft near 29N128W. Seas will continue to be 12 ft N of 15N and W of 120W through Tue night. $$ AReinhart