000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251526 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Oct 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rick is centered inland near 18.6N 102.2W at 25/1500 UTC moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center of the hurricane, N of 16.5N between 101W and 103W. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected today while Rick continues to move over land, and Rick is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico tonight or Tuesday. A storm surge is producing significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in southern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge is accompanied by large and destructive waves. Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through early Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 90W N of 03N into Guatemala, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A segment of the monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 07N97W. Another segment extends from southwest of Hurricane Rick at 13N105W to 10N113W to a 1012 mb low near 11.5N122W to 11N137W. In addition to the convection associated with Hurricane Rick described in the Special Features section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 105W and 109W, from 09N to 11N between 112W and 115W, and from 09N to 12N between 130W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Hurricane Rick. Recent scatterometer satellite data indicates gentle to moderate winds prevail across Mexican offshore waters, outside the waters off Michoacan and western Guerrero. NW swell is subsiding off Baja California, although 8 to 9 ft seas are still evident south of Punta Eugenia reaching as far south as Socorro Island. The NW swell is mixing with shorter- period swell generated by Rick over Mexican offshore waters south of Cabo Corrientes. For the forecast, new NW swell will move into areas offshore Baja California Norte today, and spread southward to Socorro Island Tue. Peak swell Tue and Tue night may reach 15 ft off Baja California, before decaying through Thu. Strong W gap winds are forecast tonight in the northern Gulf of California, ahead of a cold front. Behind the front, fresh to locally strong winds may develop Tue and Tue night offshore Baja California. Looking ahead, a cold front moving through the western Gulf of Mexico will bring fresh to strong gap winds to the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon trough with mainly light and variable winds to the north. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador. Mainly gentle to moderate SW winds persist over the Central American offshore waters into midweek. Seas will range from 4 to 7 ft in southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A large area of long period NW swell is moving through the region, with seas of 8 to 10 ft most areas N of 10N. The swell subside below 8 ft through tonight. Another reinforcing group of large NW swell is entering the NW basin, and seas will rise to over 12 ft N of 15N and W of 120W through Tue night. $$ AKR