000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250334 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Oct 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rick is centered near 16.8N 101.6W at 25/0300 UTC moving NNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm E semicircle and 90 nm W semicircle. Rick is forecast to strengthen and is likely to become a Category 2 hurricane before landfall early Mon in western Guerrero or Michoacan. A N to NNW motion is expected into Mon, with some increase in forward speed possible. A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Swells generated by Rick are affecting portions of the southwestern coast. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Rick is expected to produce 8 to 15 inches of rain with isolated storm total amounts in excess of 20 inches across mainly coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tue. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 88W N of 03N into Honduras, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 82W and 92W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A segment of the monsoon trough axis extends from 09N78W to 09N85W to 06N92W. Another segment extends from southwest of Hurricane Rick at 12N103W to a 1011 mb low near 12N122W to 11N131W. The ITCZ stretches from 11N131W to another 1011 mb low pressure center near 11N138W. In addition to the convection associated with Hurricane Rick described in the Special Features section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 105W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 09N to 11N between 124W and 126W, and from 09N to 12N between 131W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Hurricane Rick. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the basin, although locally fresh NW winds have developed offshore Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 8 to 10 ft persist off Baja California in decaying NW swell. Mixed swell is likely between Cabo San Lucas, Socorro Island and Cabo Corrientes with components of the NW swell entering the area along with swell generated from Rick farther south. For the forecast, new NW swell will move into areas offshore Baja California Norte Mon, and spread S to Socorro Island Tue. Peak swell Tue and Tue night may reach 15 ft offshore Baja California, before decaying through Thu. Strong W gap winds are forecast Mon night in the northern Gulf of California, ahead of a cold front. Behind the front, fresh to locally strong winds may develop Tue and Tue night offshore Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon trough with mainly light and variable winds to the north. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador. Mainly gentle to moderate SW winds persist over the Central American offshore waters into midweek. Seas will range from 4 to 7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A large area of long period NW swell is moving through the region, with seas of 8 to 10 ft most areas N of 10N. The swell subside below 8 ft through Mon. Another reinforcing group of large NW swell is entering the NW basin today, and seas will rise to over 12 ft N of 15N and W of 120W Mon through Tue night. $$ Christensen