000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242044 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Oct 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rick is centered near 16.3N 101.7W at 24/2100 UTC moving N at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm NE semicircle and 120 nm SW semicircle. Rick is forecast to strengthen and is likely to become a Category 2 hurricane before landfall late tonight in Guerrero or Michoacan. A N to NNW motion is expected into Mon, with some increase in forward speed possible. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane force winds are possible between Tecpan de Galeana and Punta San Telmo. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Swells generated by Rick are affecting portions of the southwestern coast. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Rick is expected to produce 8 to 15 inches of rain with isolated storm total amounts in excess of 20 inches across mainly coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tue. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 88W N of 03N into Honduras, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 82W and 92W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A segment of the monsoon trough axis extends from northern Costa Rica near 10N85W to 11N93W. Another segment extends from southwest of Hurricane Rick at 13N110W and continues to a 1011 mb low pressure near 11N125W. The ITCZ stretches from 11N125W to beyond 08N140W. In addition to the convection associated with Hurricane Rick and the tropical wave, described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 110W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Hurricane Rick. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the basin, although locally fresh NW winds have developed offshore Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 8 to 10 ft persist off Baja California in decaying NW swell. Mixed swell is likely between Cabo San Lucas, Socorro Island and Cabo Corrientes with components of the NW swell entering the area along with swell generated from Rick farther south. For the forecast, NW swell mainly NW of the Revillagigedo Islands will decay below 8 ft Mon, but new NW swell will move into areas offshore Baja California Norte Mon night, and spread S to Socorro Island Tue. Peak swell Tue and Tue night may reach 15 ft offshore Baja California, before decaying through Thu. Strong W gap winds are forecast Mon night in the northern Gulf of California, ahead of a cold front. Behind the front, fresh to locally strong winds may develop Tue and Tue night offshore Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon trough with mainly light and variable winds to the north. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador. Mainly gentle to moderate SW winds persist over the Central American offshore waters into midweek. Seas will range from 4 to 7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A large area of long period NW swell is moving through the region, with seas of 8 to 10 ft most areas N of 10N. The swell subside below 8 ft through Mon. Another reinforcing group of large NW swell is entering the NW basin today, and seas will rise to over 12 ft N of 15N and W of 120W Mon through Tue night. $$ KONARIK