000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240318 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Oct 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rick is centered near 15.3N 102.0W at 24/0300 UTC moving NNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is evident within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 10N to 16N between 103W and 108W. Rick is forecast to continue strengthening, possibly rapidly, and is forecast to become a Major Hurricane Sun. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach the coast of Mexico Sun and Sun night, and make landfall on the coast of Mexico late Sun night or on Mon. A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Swells generated by Rick are beginning to affect portions of the southwestern coast. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through Tue. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is evident north of 03N along 83W through Costa Rica. No significant convection is evident with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A segment of the monsoon trough axis extends from northern Costa Rica near 10N85W to 11N92W. Another segment extends from southwest of Hurricane Rick at 13N110W and continues to a 1010 mb low pressure near 11.5N122W to 10N126W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N126W to beyond 08N140W. In addition to the convection associated with Hurricane Rick, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 122W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Hurricane Rick. A pair of earlier radar altimeter satellite passes indicated 8 to 10 ft seas off the Baja California coast. These waves are related to a bigger area of NW swell that has impacted the region as far south as Cabo San Lazaro. This swell accompanied a dissipating front, now reaching from southwest Arizona to beyond 27N120W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are evident off Baja California Norte, with gentle NW winds elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters, outside of the main impact areas of Rick along the Guerrero and Michoacan coasts. For the forecast, NW swell will continue to move through the offshore waters off Baja California, and will reach the Revillagigedo Islands late Sun. Looking ahead, another round of NW swell move into Baja California Norte offshore waters Mon, continue south, reaching Socorro Island Tue night, then will subside through Thu. This swell will accompany another cold front, expected to sweep through Baja California through mid week. Fresh to strong westerly gap winds are possible ahead of the front over the northern Gulf of California Mon night into Tue. Looking ahead, fresh NW winds may follow the front along the length of the Gulf of California Wed night or Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly gentle to moderate S to SW will follow the monsoon trough as it lifts north of the area over the next couple of days. Seas will build in SW swell tonight and Sun between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. This swell is forecast to reach the offshore forecast waters of western Panama late Sun into Mon, supporting seas to 7 ft. Seas will subside thereafter across the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A dissipating cold front stretches from 27N120W to weak 1016 mb low pressure near 25N137W. Earlier radar altimeter satellite passes confirmed wave heights to 12 ft accompanying this front. This is part of a large area of long period NW swell moving through the region, with seas in excess of 8 ft reaching as far south as 10N. The front will stall and dissipate overnight. The swell subside below 8 ft through Sun and Mon. Another reinforcing group of large NW swell will move south of 30N and east of 140W Sun, supporting seas in excess of 8 ft over much of the area north of 05N and west of 110W Mon through mid week. Seas over 12 ft are possible N of 15N and W of 120W into mid week. $$ Christensen