000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232100 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Oct 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rick is centered near 15.1N 101.8W at 23/2100 UTC moving NNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Seas associated with Rick are reaching 18 to 21 ft off western Guerrero and Michoacan up to 150 nm from the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the center. Rick is forecast to continue strengthening, possibly rapidly, and is forecast to become a Major Hurricane Sun. A continued NNW to N motion is expected, which will bring Rick to the Mexican coast Sun night. Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. Swells generated by Rick are beginning to affect portions of the southwestern coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Costa Rica near 10N85W to 12N94W, then resumes SW of Hurricane Rick at 13N108W and continues to a 1010 mb low pressure near 11N123W. The ITCZ stretches from 11N123W to beyond 07N140W. In addition to the convection associated with Hurricane Rick, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 112W and 133W. Scattered moderate convection has also developed from 05N to 07N between 80W and 90W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Hurricane Rick. Seas of 8 to 10 ft prevail off Baja California, mainly N of Cabo San Lazaro. This is part of a larger group of swell moving into the Baja California offshore waters, accompanying a cold front currently reaching from the U.S. Mexico border to 24N140. Fresh NW winds are ongoing off Baja California Norte, with moderate NW winds elsewhere north of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are evident elsewhere, including the Gulf of California. For the forecast, outside of the area impacted by Hurricane Rick described in the Special Features section above, NW swell will propagate across the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through this evening, then reach the Revillagigedo Islands late Sun. Looking ahead, another round of NW swell move into Baja California Norte offshore waters Mon, continue south and reach Socorro Island Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon trough, with mainly light and variable winds to the north. Seas average 4 to 6 ft, with some seas of up to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands. Mainly gentle to moderate S to SW will follow the monsoon trough as it lifts north of the area over the next couple of days. Seas will build in SW swell tonight and Sun between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. This swell is forecast to reach the offshore forecast waters of western Panama late Sun into Mon, supporting seas to 7 ft. Seas will subside thereafter across the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front stretches from 28N123W to 23N140W is beginning to slow down. N of this front, seas of 8 to 12 ft are occurring mainly due to long period NW swell. This front will stall this evening and dissipate overnight. Seas of 8 to 10 ft prevail S of this area, in gradually decaying swell. As this area of swell decays, seas associate with it will gradually fall below 8 ft into Mon. Looking ahead, another reinforcing group of large NW swell will move south of 30N and east of 140W Sun, supporting seas in excess of 8 ft over much of the area north of 05N and west of 110W Mon through mid week. Seas over 12 ft are possible N of 15N and W of 120W early next week. $$ KONARIK