000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231537 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Oct 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Hurricane Rick is centered near 14.7N 101.5W at 23/1500 UTC moving NNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Seas associated with Rick are reaching 15 to 18 ft off western Oaxaca and Guerrero up to 120 nm from the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 210 nm of the center N semicircle and 150 nm S semicircle. Rick is forecast to continue strengthening, possibly rapidly, and is likely to become a Major Hurricane Sun. A continued NNW to N motion is expected, which will bring Rick to the Mexican coast Sun night. Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A segment of the monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica near 10N85W to 12N95W. Another segment continues west of newly upgraded Hurricane Rick from 12N110W to 1011 mb low pressure located near 11N121W. The ITCZ continues from 11N121W to beyond 07N140W. In addition to the convection associated with Hurricane Rick, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 105W and 112W, and within 60 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 117W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Newly upgraded Hurricane Rick. Seas of 7 to 9 ft prevail off Baja California, mainly N of Cabo San Lazaro. This is part of a larger group of swell starting to move into the Baja California offshore waters, accompanying a cold front currently reaching from southern California to 25N140W. Fresh NW winds are ongoing off Baja California Norte, with moderate NW winds elsewhere north of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are evident elsewhere, to include over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, outside of the area impacted by Hurricane Rick described in the Special Features section above, NW swell will will propagate across the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through this evening, reaching the Revillagigedo Islands late Sun. Looking ahead, another round of NW swell move into Baja California Norte offshore waters Mon, continue south and reach Socorro Island by Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly gentle to moderate S to SW will follow the monsoon trough as it lifts north of the area over the next couple of days. Seas will build in SW swell tonight and Sun between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. This swell event is forecast to reach the offshore forecast waters of western Panama late Sun into Mon, supporting seas to 7 ft. Seas will subside thereafter across the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front moving across the waters north of 25N currently reaches from 30N123W to 25N140W. A pair of recent radar altimeter satellite passes showed seas to 10-15 ft mainly due to long period NW swells following the front. The front forecast to reach from 30N119W to 26N130W to 26N140W by this afternoon while dissipating. Elsewhere, the satellite data also shows 8 to 10 ft seas over a large area north of 09N and west of 120W. The current swell groups will subside below 8 ft through early Mon as they continue to move across the waters mainly west of 110W. Looking ahead, another reinforcing group of large NW swell will move south of 30N and east of 140W by Sun night, supporting seas in excess of 8 ft over much of the area north of 05N and west of 110W Mon through mid week. $$ KONARIK