000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230348 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Oct 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Rick is centered near 13.4N 101.3W at 23/0300 UTC, moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas are reaching 12 ft within 90 nm to the north of the center. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are intensifying within 120 nm of the center, with additional scattered showers and thunderstorms within 240 nm west of the center. Rick is forecast to continue continue to intensify as it moves WNW, reaching hurricane strength Sat afternoon, then continue northward and make landfall on the coast of the Mexican state of Michoacan late Sun/early Mon. Rick will produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima starting Saturday night. This will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico beginning by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A segment of the monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica near 10N85W to 13N95W. Another segment continues west of T.S. Rick from 12N109W to 1011 mb low pressure located near 11N121W. The ITCZ continues from 11N121W to beyond 07N140W. In addition to the convection associated with T.S. Rick, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 90W and 93W, from 10N to 13N between 118W and 124W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Rick. Recent radar altimeter satellite passes confirmed seas of 7 to 9 ft off Baja California, mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro. This is residual swell from an earlier group of NW swell that entered the area yesterday. The satellite derived data also showed higher seas farther to the northwest, related to another group of NW swell approaching the area, accompanying a cold front currently reaching from southern California to 26N140W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass and a ship observation show fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California Norte, with moderate NW winds elsewhere north of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are evident elsewhere, to include over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, outside of the area impacted by Tropical Storm Rick described in the Special Features section above, a new set of large NW swell will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia by early Sat morning, with seas building to 8-10 ft. This swell event will propagate across the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through Sat evening, reaching the Revillagigedo Islands late on Sun. Looking ahead, another round of NW swell may reach Baja California Norte waters Mon, then reaching Socorro Island by Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly gentle to moderate S to SW will follow the monsoon trough as it lifts north of the area over the next couple of days. By Sat night into Sun, expect building seas in SW swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. This swell event is forecast to reach the offshore forecast waters of western Panama late Sun into Mon, supporting seas to 8 ft. Seas will subside thereafter across the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front moving across the waters north of 25N currently reaches from 30N126W to 27N140W. Recent radar altimeter satellite passes showed seas to 14 ft mainly due to long period NW swells following the front. The front forecast to reach from 30N119W to 26N130W to 26N140W by Sat afternoon while dissipating. Elsewhere, the satellite data also shows 8 to 10 ft seas over a large area north of 09N and west of 120W. The current swell groups will subside below 8 ft through early Mon as they continue to move across the waters mainly west of 110W. Looking ahead, another reinforcing group of large NW swell will move south of 30N and east of 140W by Sun night, supporting seas in excess of 8 ft over much of the area north of 05N and west of 110W Mon through mid week. $$ Christensen