118 AXPZ20 KNHC 222152 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Oct 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Seventeen-E strengthens into Tropical Storm Rick. At 22/2100 UTC, Rick is centered near 13.1N 101.0W moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Rick is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday night. Rick will produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima starting Saturday night. This will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico beginning by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Tropical Depression Seventeen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica near 10N84W to 15N96W, then continues W of T.S. Rick from 14N106W to 1010 mb low pressure located near 11N120W. The ITCZ continues from 11N120W to beyond 06N140W. Aside for the convection associated with T.S. Rick, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 82W and 90W, from 10N to 12N between 88W and 91W, and from 10N to 12N between 121W and 124W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Seventeen-E is upgraded to Tropical Storm Rick at 22/2100 UTC. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. A surface ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure centered near 25N135W to near Clarion Island. Gentle to moderate NW winds are noted across the offshore waters of Baja california. An earlier altimeter pass confirmed 8 to 9 ft seas were already impacting the offshore waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro. This is part of a larger area of NW swell in excess of 8 ft propagating into the region. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, please, see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Rick. A new set of large NW swell will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia by early Sat morning, with seas building to 8-10 ft. This swell event will propagate across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Sat evening, reaching the Revillagigedo Islands late on Sun. Looking ahead, a third round of NW swell may reach Baja California Norte waters Mon, reaching Socorro Island by Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly gentle to moderate S to SW will follow the monsoon trough as it lifts north of the area over the next couple of days. By Sat night into Sun, expect building seas in SW swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. This swell event is forecast to reach the offshore forecast waters of western Panama late Sun into Mon, supporting seas to 8 ft. Seas will subside thereafter across the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is moving across the NW corner of the forecast region and extends from 30N128W to 26N140W. A 1022 mb high pressure centered near 25N135W is shifting east ahead of a cold front. Large, long period NW swells follow the front forecast to reach from 30N119W to 26N130W to 26N140W by Sat afternoon while dissipating. Currently, seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW swell cover the area NW of a line from 30N126W to 23N140W. Highest seas of 12 to 15 ft are noted NW of a line from An altimeter pass just W of 140W confirmed the presence of these sea heights. This swell event will continue to propagate across the forecast region through at least Sat, with seas in excess of 8 ft covering much of the waters N of 20N W of 120W. Looking ahead, another large area of NW swell will move south of 30N Sun night, bring seas in excess of 8 ft to most of the area west of 110W through mid week. $$ GR