000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220904 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Oct 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale warning: A gale warning is in effect for developing low pressure centered approximately 220 nm south of Acapulco, Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms near the low are becoming better organized, and there is a high chance a tropical depression will form over the next couple of days. Regardless of development, mariners can expect gales and rough seas in the offshore waters from western Oaxaca to Michoacan through Mon. Please see latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 1009 mb low pressure near 13N99W to 09N105W to 1012 mb low pressure near 12N117W to 08N131W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed in the Gulf of Panama. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 92W and 12W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 10N to 14N between 113W and 121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section regarding the developing low pressure area off southern Mexico. A surface ridge extends from 1024 mb high pressure centered near 28N125W to south of Los Cabos. Moderate to occasionally fresh NW winds persist between the ridge axis and lower pressure over north central Mexico. A radar altimeter satellite pass from 03 UTC confirmed 8 to 9 ft seas were already impacting the offshore waters of Baja California. This is part of a larger area of NW swell in excess of 8 ft propagating into the region. For the forecast, in additional the high likelihood of a tropical depression forming off southern Mexico over the next couple of days, NW swell in excess of 8 ft moving into the offshore waters of Baja California Norte will subside later today. However, another set of large NW swell will follow tonight, reach as far south as Socorro Island by Sun, then subside through late Mon. Looking ahead, a third round of NW swell may reach Baja California Norte waters Mon, reaching Socorro Island by Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly gentle to moderate S to SW will follow the monsoon trough as it lifts north of the area over the next couple of days. By Sat night into Sun, expect building seas in SW swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. This swell event is forecast to reach the offshore forecast waters of western Panama on Sun, supporting seas to 8 ft. Seas will subside thereafter across the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1024 mb high pressure centered near 28N125W is shifting east ahead of a cold front moving across waters north of 25N over the next couple of days. Large, long period NW swells follow the front forecast to reach 30N128W to 27N140W later today, and from 30N119W to 26N140W on Sat while weakening. Moderate to fresh SW winds are between the front and the high. Currently, seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell cover the area northwest of a line from Guadalupe Island to 14N140W. Highest seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected in the wake of the front this morning. This swell event will continue to propagate across the forecast region through at least Sat, with seas in excess of 8 ft covering much of the waters N of 20N W of 120W. Looking ahead, another large area of NW swell will move south of 30N Sun night, bring seas in excess of 8 ft to most of the area west of 110W through mid week. $$ Christensen