000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Oct 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of disturbed weather continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms within a couple of hundred miles off the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward near or just offshore the southern coast of Mexico. Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 5 days. Please, see latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 137W extending from 05N to 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 134W and 138W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica near 10N84W to low pres located near 12.5N95.5W to 12N115W to 1010 mb low pres near 10N126W to 11N137W to 11N140W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is from 09N to 12N between 124W and 127W. Similar convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 113W and 120W, from 08N to 11N between 103W and 111W, and from 06N to 10N between 84W and 89W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1022 mb centered near 29N124W extends a ridge across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft in NW swell. Northerly winds of similar magnitude are along the Gulf of California with seas of 1-3 ft. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are noted just S of Puerto Angel. For the forecast, a broad area of disturbed weather continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms within a couple of hundred miles off the southern coast of Mexico. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NW-N winds are expected N of Punta Eugenia Fri through Sun night. Seas are forecast to build to 10 or 11 ft in NW swell. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail. Winds will veer to the S and then SW in the northern part of the Gulf by Fri night as a weakening cold front approaches from the W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A broad area of disturbed weather producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms within a couple of hundred miles of the coasts of southern Mexico and Guatemala has the potential of becoming a tropical cyclone this weekend while the system moves away from the Guatemala offshore waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are now seen over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Mainly gentle to moderate S to SW are expected across the forecast area S of the monsoon trough with seas of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell. By Sat night into Sun, expect building seas of 6-7 ft in SW swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. N of the monsoon trough expect light to gentle variable winds through the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A dissipating stationary front extends from 32N135W TO 28N140W. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are between the front and a 1022 mb high centered near 29N124W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell cover the area NW of a line from 29N122W TO 21N140W. Another cold front is approaching 30N140W. Highest seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected in the wake of the front by Fri morning. This swell event will continue to propagate across the forecast waters on Fri, with seas in excess of 8 ft covering the waters from 30N122W to 21N140W by Fri evening. $$ GR