000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210405 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Oct 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 96W north of 05N to Oaxaca, Mexico, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted N of 07N between 92W AND 98W. A tropical wave is along 135W extending from 05N to 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 130W and 136W, and from 10N to 16N between 130W and 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 08N83W to 12N96W to 10N105W to 11N111W to 09N131W to 12N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves mentioned above, scattered moderate is N of 02N E of 85W, from 07N to 14N between 98W and 106W, from 08N to 13N between 113W and 121W, and from 07N to 12N between 123W and 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1019 mb centered near 28N123W extends a ridge ESE to the offshore waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with seas to 5 ft in NW swell. Northerly winds of similar magnitude are along the Gulf of California as indicated by recent scatterometer data, however with seas to 3 ft. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are in the Oaxaca, Tehuantepec and Chiapas offshore waters with seas to 5 ft primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, a broad area of disturbed weather producing some disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms within a couple of hundred miles of the coasts of southern Mexico and Guatemala has the potential of becoming a tropical depression this weekend while the system moves slowly WNW to NW near or just offshore the coast of southern Mexico. Regardless of development, this system could bring an increase in winds and seas in the Tehuantepec region and the SW Mexican offshore waters during the weekend and the Nayarit offshore waters early next week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NW-N winds are expected N of Punta Eugenia Fri through Sun night. Seas are forecast to build to 10 or 11 ft in NW swell. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail. Winds will veer to the S and then SW in the northern part of the Gulf by Fri night as a weakening cold front approaches from the W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A broad area of disturbed weather producing some disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms within a couple of hundred miles of the coasts of southern Mexico and Guatemala has the potential of becoming a tropical depression this weekend while the system moves slowly WNW to NW away from the Guatemala offshore waters. Mainly gentle to moderate S to SW are expected across the forecast area S of the monsoon trough with seas of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell. By Sat night into Sun, expect building seas of 6-7 ft in SW swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. N of the monsoon trough expect light to gentle variable winds through the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A dissipating cold front extends from 30N136W to 28N140W. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds between the front and a 1019 mb high centered near 28N123W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell cover the area W of a line from 30N123W to 21N140W. Another cold front is forecast to be near 30N140W by early Thu afternoon. Highest seas of 12 to 14 ft are expected in the wake of the front. This swell event will propagate across the forecast waters on Fri covering the area NW of a line from 30N125W to 23N140W. Seas in excess of 8 ft will dominate the waters NW of a line from Punta Eugenia to 15N140W on Sat. $$ Ramos