000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200905 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Oct 20 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 94W north of 04N to a 1011 mb low near 11N94W to the offshore waters of Chiapas, Mexico, moving westward at around 10 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is N of 11N between 88W and 94W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 06N to 12N between 94W and 100W. A tropical wave extends along 131W from 04N to 16N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 128W and 134W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 11N94W to 12N112W to 09N128W to 12N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves mentioned above, scattered moderate convection is noted N of 04N E of 88W, from 06N to 10N between from 08N to 14N between 87W and 94W, from 07N to 13N between 116W and 123W, and from 11N to 14N W of 138W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 06N to 13N between 129W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N-NE winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec N of 15N with seas to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds are along the Baja California peninsula offshore waters with locally fresh winds along the coast. Seas range between 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds are across the remainder SW Mexico offshore waters with seas to 5 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. In the Gulf of California, winds are light to gentle with seas to 2 ft. For the forecast, winds will continue to pulse to fresh to strong in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through Thu, with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. A broad area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador that continues to produce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression by late this week or this weekend while the system moves WNW to NW near or just off the coast of southern Mexico. Otherwise, NW swell is forecast to impact the Baja California offshore waters Thu night through early next week. Winds will increase slightly to moderate to fresh offshore of Baja California during this period as well. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A broad area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador continues to produce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Mainly moderate S-SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft in mainly southerly long period swell. For the forecast, the aforementioned disturbance has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression by late this week or this weekend while the system moves WNW to NW near or just off the coast of southern Mexico. Otherwise, little change is expected through the end of the week into the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is starting to enter the NW forecast waters. Associated NW swell of 8 to 11 ft is already impacting the waters N of 27N and W of 130W. A weak pressure pattern prevails elsewhere with light to gentle winds N of 20N and W of 120W, and moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds between 20N and the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft across the open waters in a mix of long period northerly and southerly swell. For the forecast, northerly swell associated with the cold front will spread southeast, with seas in excess of 8 ft dominating the waters northwest of a line from Guadalupe Island to 14N140W by late Thu. Reinforcing NW swell will follow over the same area through Sat. Trades north of the monsoon trough to 25N may increase slightly by the end of the week into the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens. $$ Ramos