000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200357 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Oct 20 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 93W north of 04N to Chiapas, Mexico, moving westward at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave extends along 130W from 04N to 15N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 10N100W to 11N108W to 09N130W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted N of 06N E of 84W, from 08N to 14N between 87W and 94W, from 07N to 13N between 116W and 123W, and from 11N to 14N W of 138W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 06N to 13N between 129W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N-NE winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec N of 15N with seas to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds are along the Baja California peninsula offshore waters with locally fresh winds along the coast. Seas range between 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds are across the remainder SW Mexico offshore waters with seas to 5 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. In the Gulf of California, winds are light to gentle with seas to 2 ft. For the forecast, winds will continue to pulse to fresh to strong in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through Thu, with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. A broad area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador that continues to produce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression by late this week or this weekend while the system moves WNW to NW near or just off the coast of southern Mexico. Otherwise, NW swell is forecast to impact the Baja California offshore waters Thu night through early next week. Winds will increase slightly to moderate to fresh offshore of Baja California during this period as well. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A broad area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador continues to produce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Mainly moderate S-SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft in mainly southerly long period swell. For the forecast, the aforementioned disturbance has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression by late this week or this weekend while the system moves WNW to NW near or just off the coast of southern Mexico. Otherwise, little change is expected through the end of the week into the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is located NW-N of the northern waters with fresh winds straddling 30N, stronger north of 30N. Associated NW swell of 8 ft or greater is just starting to propagate southeast of 30N140W. The remnants of a cold front are located to the east with residual seas to 8 ft in NW-N swell in the vicinity of 29N125W. A weak pressure pattern prevails elsewhere with light to gentle winds from 21N to 267N, and gentle to moderate winds south of 21N and north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft across the open waters in a mix of long period northerly and southerly swell. For the forecast, northerly swell associated with a cold front that will move into the northern waters tonight will spread southeast, with seas in excess of 8 ft dominating the waters northwest of a line from Guadalupe Island to 14N140W by late Thu. Reinforcing NW swell will follow over the same area through Sat. Trades north of the monsoon trough to 25N may increase slightly by the end of the week into the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens. $$ Ramos