000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190402 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Oct 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 83W north of 03N through southern Costa Rica, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 04N between 81W and 88W. A tropical wave extends along 91W north of 02N to Guatemala, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is N of 13N between 89W and 92W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 05N to 13N between 88W and 95W. A tropical wave extends along 107W from 03N to 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. A tropical wave extends along 126W from 03N to 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 13N between 116W and 133W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N78W to 10N95W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N111W, to 09N126W to 12N133W. The ITCZ continues from 12N133W to beyond 12N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves discussed in the section above, scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 13N between 95W and 105W, and from 08N to 14N between 108W and 114W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N to NE winds continue over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 8 ft N of 14N. Farther north, a weak cold front is starting to move across Baja California Norte. Moderate to fresh westerly gap winds are active over the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front with seas to 3 ft. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern is maintaining gentle to moderate NW winds over the Mexican offshore waters, with 3 to 5 ft seas primarily in SW swell. Fresh to strong N to NE winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to moderate to fresh by Tue night. Afterwards, a surface trough over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh NE winds across the region, continuing through Thu. An area of disturbed weather located to the S of Central America may undergo gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form late this week or weekend while the system moves WNW near or just S of the coast of southern Mexico. Farther north, the approaching cold front will stall and dissipate off Baja California through Tue, but will be accompanied by NW swell allow seas north of Cabo San Lazaro through mid week. Another larger set of NW swell will start to move into the waters near Guadalupe Island by Thu, bringing seas in excess of 8 ft to all the offshore waters of Baja California Fri and Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds prevail N of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate SW winds remain S of it. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the region with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. An area of disturbed weather located to the S of Central America may undergo gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form late this week or weekend while the system moves WNW near or just S of the coast of southern Mexico. Regardless of development, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds associated with this disturbance will affect the Guatemala and Nicaragua offshore waters Tue through Thu. Otherwise, gentle to moderate SW winds will dominate the remainder offshore waters S of the monsoon trough through the forecast period. Looking ahead, seas will build off Ecuador and Colombia in increased southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to locally fresh NE winds continue over the waters N of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas in the 5-7 ft range will change little into Tue. A NW swell expected to raise seas to 8 ft will move into the waters N of 27N between 120W-130W Tue into Wed, then subside. Looking ahead, another round of NW swell will accompany a cold front that will move into the waters N of 28N and W of 130W Tue night, with seas in excess of 8 ft dominating the waters NW of a line from Guadalupe Island to 14N140W by late Thu. Reinforcing NW swell will follow over the same area through Sat. $$ Ramos