000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160919 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Oct 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build across the Gulf of Mexico as a cold front pushes across the basin. This will bring fresh to strong northerly winds beginning early Sat morning across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will increase to gale force by Sun at 0000 UTC and pulse through 18/1800 UTC. Seas are expected to build to 8 to 11 ft downwind of the gale force winds. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 92W and N of 02N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 07N to 16N between 92W and 94W. Another tropical wave extends its axis along 110W from 03N to 17N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 109W and 112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nicaragua near 12N87W to 13N95W to 10N105W to 11N115W to 14N125W to 12N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves discussed in the section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N and E of 112W and from 08N to 14N and W of 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for more information on the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Overnight scatterometer data depicted fresh northerly winds over most of the Gulf of California with strong winds over the northern Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds prevail elsewhere along the Mexican coast. Seas average between 4 to 6 ft across the Mexico offshores, with seas 3 to 6 ft occurring in the Gulf of California. Numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms are moving off the Guerrero coast between 100W and 102W. Thunderstorms are also moving across the Gulf of Tehuantepec N of 13N between 92W and 97W. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds over the northern Gulf of California will continue through this afternoon. High pressure will build south across the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold front Sat night into Sun. This will bring strong to near gale force gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Sat morning and pulse to gale force Sat night through Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected to prevail elsewhere through midweek. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light N winds prevail N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate SW winds ongoing to the S. Scattered thunderstorms are moving along the coasts of Nicaragua southward to Panama. Meanwhile, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted moving off of Colombia into the Gulf of Panama and adjacent offshore waters, N of 2N and E of 80W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft due to a moderate southwest swell. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will continue to prevail N of the monsoon trough with moderate SW winds to the S of the monsoon trough through the weekend. Seas will average 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo Mon night. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue across the region through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail over areas N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. An area of 8 to 9 ft swell from 04N to 07N between 109W and 116W will continue through Sat night. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 7 ft range will prevail. $$ AReinhart