000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151538 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Oct 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build across the Gulf of Mexico as a cold front pushes across that basin. This will bring fresh to strong northerly winds beginning 16/1200 UTC across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will increase to gale force by Sun at 0000 UTC and continue through Sun night/early Mon. Seas are expected to build 8 to 11 ft downwind of the gale force winds. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 89W and N of 06N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 06N to 10N between 86W and 90W. Another tropical wave extends its axis along 106W from 06N to 17N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 104W and 109W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 10N120W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves discussed in the section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N and E of 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for more information on the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Latest scatterometer depicted fresh northerly winds around Punta Eugenia in Baja California Sur in addition to portions of the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail elsewhere along the Mexican coast. Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, N of 14N between 93W and 95W. Seas average 4 to 6 ft across the Mexico offshores with seas 1 to 3 ft occurring in the Gulf of California. Fresh northerly winds are expected to develop over the northern portion of the Gulf of California this afternoon and continue through Sat. High pressure will build south across the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold front Sat night into Sun. This will bring strong to near gale force gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Sat morning and pulse to gale force Sat night and Sun through Sun night. Gentle winds are expected to prevail elsewhere through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light N winds prevail N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate SW winds ongoing to the S. Scattered thunderstorms are moving off the coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms are also lingering across the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of Colombia from 04N to 08N and E of 80W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft due to a moderate southwest swell. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will continue to prevail N of the monsoon trough with moderate SW winds to the S of the monsoon trough through the weekend. Seas will average 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue across the region through Sat night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail over areas N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 8 to 10 ft. Conditions in most of this area will gradually improve through today. However, swell from a weakening front will continue bringing 8 to 10 ft swell through tonight near the area N of 26N between 120W and 130W. An area of 8 ft swell will also develop from 04N to 08N between 104W and 111W tonight and continue through Sat night. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 7 ft range will prevail. $$ ERA