504 AXPZ20 KNHC 150851 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Oct 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build across the Gulf of Mexico as a cold front pushes across that basin. This will bring fresh to strong northerly winds beginning 16/1200 UTC across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will increase to gale force by 17/0000 UTC and will pulse to gale force through 18/1200 UTC. Seas are expected to build 8 to 11 ft downwind of the gale force winds. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on this warning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 88W and N of 04N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 07N to 13N between 87W and 89W. Another tropical wave is along 105W, with an axis from 05N to 17N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 105W and 106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 10N97W to 10N108W to 15N115W to 13N125W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves discussed in the section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 91W to 111W and from 10N to 16N between 114W to 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for more information on the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate NW winds are occurring along the offshores of Baja California, Baja California Sur and within the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted near Cabo Corrientes. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds prevail with no significant convection in the area. Seas average 4 to 7 ft across the Mexico offshores with seas 1 to 3 ft occurring in the Gulf of California. A weakening frontal trough will move south through Baja California and adjacent waters tonight. This will bring fresh to locally strong winds in the northern Gulf of California through Fri night. High pressure surging south through the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold front will bring strong to near gale force gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend, pulsing to gale force on Sat night and Sun night. Gentle winds are expected to prevail elsewhere through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light N winds prevail N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate SW winds ongoing to the S. Seas are 4 to 6 ft due to a moderate southwest swell. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will continue to prevail N of the monsoon trough with moderate SW winds to the S of the monsoon trough through the weekend. Seas will average 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh NE winds prevail over areas N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W, with gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 8 to 10 ft. Conditions in most of this area will gradually improve through Fri, but a new set of swell following a weak cold front will bring 8 to 11 ft seas areas N of 26N between 120W and 130W later tonight through Fri night. Mainly moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 7 ft range will prevail elsewhere. $$ AKR