000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150328 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Oct 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build across the Gulf of Mexico as a cold front pushes across that basin. This will bring fresh to strong northerly winds beginning 16/0600 UTC across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will increase to gale force by 17/0000 UTC and continue to pulse through 18/1200 UTC. Seas are expected to build to 10 ft downwind of the gale force winds. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on this warning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 86W and N of 04N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to 10N between 84W and 87W. Another tropical wave is along 104W, with an axis from 06N to 17N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 104W and 106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 10N97W to 10N108W to 15N115W to 13N125W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves discussed in the section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 91W to 111W and from 10N to 16N between 114W to 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for more information on the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate NW winds are occurring near the Punta Eugenia along Baja California Sur, offshore of Baja California, and within the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted near Cabo Corrientes. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds prevail. Seas average 4 to 7 ft from the Baja California offshores southward to Cabo Corrientes to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas 1 to 3 ft are occurring in the Gulf of California. A weakening frontal trough will move south through Baja California and adjacent waters tonight, bringing fresh to locally strong winds in the northern Gulf of California into Fri night. Gentle winds are expected to prevail elsewhere through early next week. High pressure surging south through the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold front will bring strong to near gale force gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend, pulsing to gale force on Sat night and Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light N winds prevail N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate SW winds ongoing to the S. Seas are 4 to 6 ft due to a moderate southwest swell. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will continue to prevail N of the monsoon trough with moderate SW winds to the S of the monsoon trough through the weekend. Seas will average 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh NE winds prevail over areas N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W, with gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 8 to 10 ft. Conditions in most of this area will gradually improve through Fri, but a new set of swell following a weak cold front will bring 8 to 11 ft seas areas N of 26N between 120W and 130W later tonight through Fri night. Mainly moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 7 ft range will prevail elsewhere. $$ AReinhart