000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150306 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Oct 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build across the Gulf of Mexico as a cold front pushes across that bsin. This will bring fresh to strong northerly winds beginning 16/0600 UTC across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will increase to gale force by 17/0000 UTC and continue to pulse through 18/1200 UTC. Seas are expected to build to 10 ft downwind of the gale force winds. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on this warning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 85W and N of 04N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 05N to 12N between 87W and 87W. Another tropical wave is along 102W, with an axis from 05N to 16N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 100W and 104W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 10N107W to 13N109W. It resumes from 15N112W to 11N140W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves depicted in the section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N and E of 112W, from 13N to 17N between 112W and 126W, and from 08N to 14N and W of 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Seas average of 4 to 7 ft are ongoing offshore Baja California. Moderate NW winds are occurring offshore Baja California as well as offshore and south of Cabo Corrientes, otherwise mainly gentle winds prevail. A weakening frontal trough will move south through Baja California and adjacent waters tonight, bringing fresh to locally strong winds in the northern Gulf of California into early Fri. High pressure surging south through the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold front will bring strong to near gale force gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend, pulsing to gale force on Sat night and Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light N winds prevail N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate SW winds ongoing to the S. Seas are 5 to 7 ft due to a moderate southwest swell. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough, with moderate SW winds to the S of the monsoon trough through late week. Seas will average 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh NE winds prevail over areas N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft. Conditions in most of this area will gradually improve through Fri, but a new set of swell following a weak cold front will bring 8 to 11 ft seas areas N of 26N between 120W and 130W later today into Fri night. Mainly moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 7 ft range will prevail elsewhere. $$ AKR