000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142044
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Oct 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 85W and N of 04N, moving W at 10 to 15 
kt. Scattered showers are noted from 05N to 12N between 87W and
87W.

Another tropical wave is along 102W, with an axis from 05N to
16N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 09N to 13N between 100W and 104W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 10N107W to 13N109W. It
resumes from 15N112W to 11N140W. Aside from convection associated
with the tropical waves depicted in the section above, scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N and E of 112W, from
13N to 17N between 112W and 126W, and from 08N to 14N and W of 
136W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Seas average of 4 to 7 ft are ongoing offshore Baja California. 
Moderate NW winds are occurring offshore Baja California as well 
as offshore and south of Cabo Corrientes, otherwise mainly gentle
winds prevail.

A weakening frontal trough will move south through Baja California
and adjacent waters tonight, bringing fresh to locally strong 
winds in the northern Gulf of California into early Fri. High 
pressure surging south through the western Gulf of Mexico in the 
wake of a cold front will bring strong to near gale force gap 
winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend, 
pulsing to gale force on Sat night and Sun night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light N winds prevail N of the monsoon trough with gentle to 
moderate SW winds ongoing to the S. Seas are 5 to 7 ft due to a 
moderate southwest swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail N of the 
monsoon trough, with moderate SW winds to the S of the monsoon 
trough through late week. Seas will average 4 to 6 ft in SW 
swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh NE winds prevail over areas N of the monsoon trough and W 
of 115W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft. Conditions in most of this area 
will gradually improve through Fri, but a new set of swell 
following a weak cold front will bring 8 to 11 ft seas areas N of
26N between 120W and 130W later today into Fri night. Mainly 
moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 7 ft range will prevail 
elsewhere.

$$
ERA