036 
AXPZ20 KNHC 141525
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Oct 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 84W, from 04N, across Costa Rica, and
into the western Caribbean, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 83W and 
87W.

Another tropical wave is along 101W, with an axis from 05N into 
Guerrero, Mexico. This wave is moving W at around 10 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 
100W and 110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N86W to 
11N110W. It resumes from 16N111W to 10N140W. Aside from 
convection associated with the tropical waves depicted in the 
section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N 
to 14N and E of 110W, and from 05N to 15N and W of 136W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Rough seas are ongoing offshore Baja California, otherwise seas
average 4 to 6 ft. Moderate NW winds are occurring offshore Baja
California as well as offshore and south of Cabo Corrientes, 
otherwise mainly gentle winds prevail.

For the forecast, seas of 7 to 9 ft offshore Baja California 
will diminish this afternoon. A weakening cold front will move 
south through Baja California and adjacent waters tonight, 
bringing fresh to locally strong winds in the northern Gulf of 
California into early Fri. High pressure surging south through 
the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold front will bring
strong gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat into
Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light winds mainly N winds are occurring N of the monsoon trough
with gentle to moderate SW winds ongoing to the S. Seas are 5 to
7 ft due to a moderate southwest swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail N of the 
monsoon trough, with moderate SW winds to the S of the monsoon 
trough through late week. Seas will average 4 to 6 ft in SW 
swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh NE winds prevail over areas N of the monsoon trough and W 
of 120W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft. Conditions in most of this area 
will gradually improve through Fri, but a new set of swell 
following a weak cold front will bring 8 to 11 ft seas areas N of
26N between 120W and 130W later today into Fri night. Mainly 
moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range will continue to 
prevail elsewhere.

$$
ERA