000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140724
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Oct 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 84W, from 04N, across Costa Rica, and
into the western Caribbean, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 78W and 91W.

Another tropical wave is along 101W, with an axis from 04N into
Guerrero, Mexico. This wave is moving W at around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14N between
100W and 106W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to 
11N109W. It resumes from 16N112W to 10N139W. Aside from 
convection associated with the tropical waves depicted in the 
Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 06N to 13N between 124W and 139W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Rough seas are ongoing offshore Baja California, otherwise seas
average 4 to 6 ft. Moderate NW winds are occurring offshore Baja
California as well as offshore and south of Cabo Corrientes, 
otherwise mainly gentle winds prevail.

For the forecast, seas of 7 to 9 ft offshore Baja California 
will diminish today. A weakening cold front will move south 
through Baja California and adjacent waters tonight, bringing 
fresh to locally strong winds in the northern Gulf of California 
into early Fri. High pressure surging south through the western 
Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold front will bring strong gap 
winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat into Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light winds mainly N winds are occurring N of the monsoon trough
with gentle to moderate SW winds ongoing to the S. Seas are 5 to
7 ft due to a moderate southwest swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail N of the 
monsoon trough, with moderate SW winds to the S of the monsoon 
trough through late week. Seas will average 4 to 6 ft in SW 
swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh NE winds prevail over areas N of the monsoon trough and W 
of 125W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft. Conditions in most of this area 
will gradually improve Thu into Fri, but a new set of swell
following a weak cold front will bring 8 to 11 ft seas areas N of
26N between 119W and 132W later today into Fri night. Mainly 
moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range will continue to
prevail elsewhere.

$$
KONARIK