000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130907 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Oct 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Hurricane Pamela is centered near 22.8N 107.6W at 13/0900 UTC moving NE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas near the center are near 28 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm of the center. Pamela will continue moving NE today and increase in forward speed, bringing landfall later this morning to Sinaloa, Mexico. Life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding, and dangerous winds are likely for portions of west- central mainland Mexico, including Sinaloa and Durango. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 96W, from 06N into Oaxaca, Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. An associated 1009 mb low pressure center is near 09N98W, near where the wave crosses the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 89W and 101W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 09N85W to 07N94W to 10N106W. It resumes from 16N114W to 11N123W to 11N135W. The ITCZ continues from 11N135W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 114W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection is located from 06N to 10N between 83W and 89W and from 09N to 14N between 134W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on newly-upgraded Hurricane Pamela. Fresh mainly N winds are ongoing offshore Baja California with seas of 9 to 12 ft. Gentle NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are ongoing offshore southern Mexico and will prevail through Fri. Hurricane Pamela will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 24.5N 105.4W this afternoon, then weaken to a tropical depression over NE Mexico Thu morning. Pamela will dissipate Thu afternoon. Elsewhere, fresh NW to N winds and rough seas in mixed swell will continue offshore Baja California into Wed. Seas offshore Baja California and west- central Mexico will gradually subside Thu. Looking ahead, strong N winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light winds are occurring N of the monsoon trough with moderate mainly SW winds ongoing to the S. Seas are 5 to 7 ft due to a moderate southwest swell. For the forecast, light to gentle mainly N winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough into early next week, with moderate SW winds to the S of the monsoon trough. A moderate southwest swell propagating through the regional waters will subside slightly later this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh NE winds prevail over areas N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, and W of 125W. Seas are 8 to 11 ft, with some slightly higher seas around 30N125W. Conditions in this area will gradually improve through Thu. Mainly moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range prevail elsewhere. $$ KONARIK