000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130305 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Oct 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Pamela is centered near 21.9N 108.7W at 13/0300 UTC moving NNE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas near the center are near 25 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 270 nm of the center. Pamela will turn more NE and accelerate in forward motion by Wed morning. Tropical Storm Pamela is passing well S of the the southern tip of Baja California and will make landfall Wed morning in Sinaloa. Pamela is expected to restrengthen to a hurricane later tonight, prior to landfall. Life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding, and dangerous winds are possible for portions of west- central mainland Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 92W, from 07N into Oaxaca, Mexico, moving W at around 15 kt. An associated 1009 mb low pressure center is at 08N94W, near where this wave crosses the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the wave axis, S of 10N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 09N85W to 07N93W to 10N107W. It resumes from 16N114W to 11N122W to 11N134W. The ITCZ continues from 11N134W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 114W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 133W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection has also developed from 05N to 10N between 81W and 89W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pamela. Fresh to locally strong NW to NE winds are ongoing offshore Baja California, with seas of 10 to 13 ft. Gentle NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are ongoing offshore souther Mexico and will prevail through Fri. Tropical Storm Pamela will strengthen to a hurricane near 23.8N 106.9W Wed morning, then move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 26.6N 103.3W Wed evening. Tropical Depression Pamela will be over Coahuila, Mexico, Thu morning and dissipate Thu evening. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds and rough seas in mixed swell will continue offshore Baja California into Wed. Seas offshore Baja California and west- central Mexico will gradually subside Thu. Looking ahead, strong N winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light winds are occurring N of the monsoon trough with moderate mainly SW winds ongoing to the S. Seas are 5 to 7 ft due to a moderate southwest swell. For the forecast, light to gentle mainly N winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough into early next week, with moderate SW winds to the S of the monsoon trough. A moderate southwest swell propagating through the regional waters will subside slightly later this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh to locally strong NE winds over areas N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, and W of 125W. Seas are 9 to 12 ft, with some slightly higher seas around 30N125W. Conditions in this area will only gradually improve through Thu. Mainly moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range prevail elsewhere. $$ KONARIK