000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122129 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Oct 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Pamela is centered near 21.0N 109.3W at 12/2100 UTC moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas near the center are up to 25 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 270 nm of the center, mainly in the E semicircle. Pamela will turn to the NNE soon, followed by a faster NE motion tonight into Wed morning. The cyclone will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula tonight and make landfall in Sinaloa Wed morning. Pamela is expected to restrengthen to a hurricane tonight, prior to landfall. Life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding, and dangerous winds are possible for portions of west- central mainland Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 92W, from 06N northward into SE Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. An associated 1010 mb low pressure center is at 07N91W, near where this wave crosses the monsoon through. Isolated moderate convection is noted near the wave axis, south of 10N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 07N91W to 12N101W. It resumes from 19N112W to 12N120W to 11N132W. The ITCZ continues from 11N132W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 114W and 127W, and from 10N to 15N between 134W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pamela. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh NW to N winds offshore Baja California. Seas are in the 10 to 13 ft range off Baja California Norte in a mix of wind waves and NW swell. Waves are increasing off Baja California Sur, and will peak tonight in the 9 to 11 ft range, in a mixed NW and S swell. Rough seas will continue into Thu offshore Baja California and west-central Mexico due to the combination of high pressure building S and Hurricane Pamela. Seas will subside by the end of the week. Meanwhile, gentle NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas will prevail elsewhere off southern Mexico through Fri. Looking ahead, strong N winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. Pamela will restrengthen to a hurricane tonight near 23N108W before moving inland. After landfall, Pamela will weaken to a tropical storm and move to near 25N105W Wed, and weaken to a remnant low Wed night near 29N101W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent ASCAT data show light to gentle mainly N winds north of the monsoon trough, with moderate SW winds to the south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5 to 7 ft due to a moderate southwest swell. For the forecast, light to gentle mainly N winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough through the weekend, with moderate SW winds to the S of the monsoon trough. A moderate southwest swell propagating through the regional waters will subside slightly later this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Recent ASCAT data show fresh to locally strong NE winds covering the area north of the monsoon trough and W of 128W. Seas in this area are 8 to 11 ft. Within the area north of 24N and east of 128W, fresh to locally strong N winds and seas of 12 to 14 ft will prevail through tonight. Seas will gradually diminish Thu into Fri. Mainly moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range prevail elsewhere. $$ Hagen