000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121550 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Oct 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Pamela is centered near 20.4N 108.9W at 12/1500 UTC moving N at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas near the center are up to 28 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm of the center in the S semicircle and 180 nm N semicircle. Pamela will continue moving N today, then turn NE and accelerate in forward motion tonight. Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula tonight and make landfall in Sinaloa Wed morning. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela may be near major hurricane strength before it reaches the coast of Mexico. Pamela could bring life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding, and dangerous winds to portions of west-central mainland Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W, from 05N into Guatemala, moving W at around 10 kt. An associated 1010 mb low pressure center is at 08N90W, near where this wave crosses the monsoon through. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 90W and 93W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 07N94W to 10N100W. It resumes from 15N115W to 11N124W to 10N138W. The ITCZ continues from 10N138W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 116W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Pamela. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1033 mb centered near 35N141W is supporting fresh to locally strong NW to N winds offshore Baja California Norte, with seas of 11 to 14 ft. Winds and waves will increase today W of Baja California Sur. Rough seas will continue into Thu offshore Baja California and west-central Mexico due to the combination the high pressure building S and Hurricane Pamela. Seas will subside by the end of the week. Meanwhile, gentle NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas will prevail elsewhere off southern Mexico through Fri. Looking ahead, strong N winds are expected to develop Sat in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Hurricane Pamela will move to near 22N108W this evening, inland to near 24N106W Wed morning, then weaken to a tropical depression inland near 27N103W Wed evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle mainly N winds prevail N of the monsoon trough, with moderate SW winds to the S. Seas are 5 to 6 ft, except for 7 ft offshore Ecuador, due to a moderate southwest swell. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the monsoon trough near 08N90W. For the forecast, light to gentle mainly N winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough through the weekend, with moderate SW winds to the S of the monsoon trough. A moderate southwest swell propagating through the regional waters will subside slightly later this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1033 mb is centered near 35N141W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure of the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8 to 11 ft, north of the monsoon trough and W of 128W. Within the area north of 25N and east of 128W, fresh to strong N winds and seas of 12 to 15 ft will prevail through tonight. Seas will gradually diminish mid to late week. Mainly moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range prevail elsewhere. $$ Hagen