000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Oct 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Hurricane Pamela is centered near 19.2N 108.9W at 12/0900 UTC moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm of the center. Pamela will continue moving N today, then turn NE and accelerate in forward motion tonight. Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula tonight and make landfall in Sinaloa Wed morning. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela may become a major hurricane before it reaches the coast of Mexico. Pamela could bring life- threatening storm surge, flash flooding, and dangerous winds to portions of west- central mainland Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning: A weakening cold front that moved SE through the area overnight is inducing some gale force NW winds behind the boundary early this morning, with seas of up to 9 ft in the northern Gulf. As the front dissipates later this morning, winds and seas will subside. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W, from 09N into El Salvador, moving W at around 10 kt. An associated 1009 mb low pressure center is at 09N90W, near where this wave crosses the monsoon through. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 83W and 92W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 11N100W. It resumes from 15N113W to 11N139W. Scattered moderate convection has developed within 60 nm either side of the western segment of the monsoon trough. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on newly upgraded Hurricane Pamela and on the Gale Warning in the northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, strong high pressure of 1038 mb centered near 39N141W is supporting fresh to strong NW winds offshore Baja California Norte, with seas of 12 to 15 ft. Winds and waves will increase today W of Baja California Sur. Rough seas will continue into late week offshore Baja California and west-central Mexico due to the combination the high pressure building S and Hurricane Pamela. Seas will subside by the end of the week. Meanwhile, gentle NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas will prevail elsewhere off southern Mexico. Hurricane Pamela will move to 20.5N 108.8W this afternoon, 22.4N 107.6W Wed morning, then move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 25.1N 105.1W Wed afternoon. Pamela will weaken to a remnant low over Mexico Thu morning and dissipate Thu afternoon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle mainly N winds prevail N of the monsoon trough, with moderate SW winds to the S. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except for 7 ft offshore Ecuador, due to a moderate southwest swell. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the monsoon trough near 09N90W. For the forecast, light to gentle mainly N winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough through the weekend, with moderate SW winds to the S of the monsoon trough. A moderate southwest swell propagating through the regional waters will subside slightly later this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1038 mb is centered near 39N141W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure of the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8 to 11 ft, north of the monsoon trough and W of 128W. Within the area north of 25N and east of 128W, strong NW to N winds will prevail through tonight. Seas will build to 12 to 16 ft there and prevail into tonight before gradually diminishing mid to late week. Mainly moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range prevail elsewhere. $$ KONARIK